How About Calling Fan Myopia Into Question?

Following Michigan’s close road loss tonight at 12th ranked Iowa tonight 28-30, I was surfing the web for a few minutes searching for other college football stories (especially those laced with schadenfreude) to sooth some of the pain in my brain and abdomen that comes from hours of yelling, celebrating, swearing, and drinking, all in no particular order.

I stumbled across the following post over at the ESPN College Football Nation Blog written by Adam Rittenberg. This post seemed to grab the torch (and pitchforks) of no doubt thousands of Michigan football fans who had watched the game tonight by calling into question Rich Rodriguez’s decision to put in freshman quarterback Denard Robinson over freshman starter Tate Forcier with just 1:25 left to play in the football game:

"Granted, Robinson had boosted Michigan by leading an 11-play, 59-yard scoring drive minutes earlier. And Forcier had struggled throughout the night, completing just 8 of 19 passes with an interception and a fumble.

But Forcier has been Mr. Clutch for Michigan this year, leading game-winning touchdown drives against both Notre Dame and Indiana and a game-tying drive last week at Michigan State. Robinson, meanwhile, boasts tremendous running skills but seems ill-suited to lead the two-minute drill with no timeouts. He entered Saturday night having completed 4 of 11 passes for 57 yards with two interceptions."

I watched the game from start to finish. I don’t think Forcier played that badly. He did not play particularly well, either. I was struck by how many online posts involved placing the weight of the entire game outcome on the coaching decisions in the final 3 minutes.

I saw things very differently.

In my view, for the third week in a row, Michigan could call itself fortunate to be trailing only 14-20 at halftime to Iowa. It very well could have been 14-28.

In the second half of the game, this is what we observed from the Michigan offensive possessions with quarterback noted:

Drive 1 (Forcier): 14:55 in 3rd at UM 33: 3 and out (UM 14, Iowa 20)

Drive 2 (Forcier): 10:39 in 3rd at UM 39: 4 and out (UM 14, Iowa 23)

Drive 3 (Forcier): 8:57 in 3rd at UM 43: 10 play, 57 yard drive for TD (UM 21, Iowa 23)

Drive 4 (Forcier): 14:15 in 4th at UM1: 4 and out (UM 21, Iowa 23)

Drive 5 (Forcier): 12:56 in 4th at UM 25: 4 and out (UM 21, Iowa 30)

Drive 6 (Robinson): 7:42 in 4th at UM40: 11 play, 60 yd drive for TD (UM 28, Iowa 30)

Drive 7 (Robinson): 1:25 in 4th at UM17: 3 plays, INT

In the second half Tate Forcier delivered one touchdown drive and four three(or something)-and-outs. If Forcier really is “Mr. Clutch” not to mention a gifted pro at running the 2 minute drill (Michigan runs a no huddle spread offense all game long so WTF is a 2 minute drill?), then what business does Denard Robinson even have being in the football game?

Well, the answer is that despite Michigan’s (and Forcier’s) flailing about offensively in the 4th quarter, the game was tight at 21-23 with over 13 minutes left. All of the sudden Iowa scored an easy touchdown on a 42 yard strike to TE Tony Moeaki, rambling the distance untouched.

Not sufficiently surprised? Me neither.

With Michigan now down by two scores (9 points), Forcier is sent out to the field again by Rich Rodriguez. Forcier (and his cohorts) respond by promptly directing yet another three-and-out. Anybody with two brain cells to rub together could see plain as day that Forcier’s decision-making, field presence (-5 yard delay of game penalty), not to mention his throws were way off. It’s also possible from Forcier’s buckling over in pain that I witnessed on the TV screen, that he might have hurt his wrist or shoulder on the earlier possession, or something. Regardless, this final three-and-out by Forcier and Co. was costly to Michigan because Iowa proceeded to whittle away 4 more precious minutes off the clock on their ensuing possession

By the time Michigan got the ball back, there was 7:42 left. Rodriguez is visibly pissed off. He decides to try Denard Robinson at quarterback and, despite certain groans from yours truly, this decision was the right one, resulting in a touchdown that shrunk the Hawkeye lead back down to 2 points once again, 28-30.

So with 3:16 left Michigan only needed a quick defensive stop, and a field goal to win the game. The defense delivered on their end of the bargain. Jason Olesnavage’s longest successful field goal kick this year was 44 yards. Irrespective of which quarterback Rodriguez would select for the final drive, this would mean leading the Michigan offense at least 50 yards (from the UM 17) in 1:25 minutes with no timeouts all the way down to the Iowa 37 yard line in order to put Olesnavage in position to match his earlier 44 yard field goal try.

Yes, Tate Forcier has certainly delivered his share of Hollywood-esque final drive theatrics against Notre Dame, Indiana and almost pulled off a dramatic come-from-behind stunt in East Lansing a week ago.

So why not put him back in, since that’s what he does best? I mean, he’s even said it himself: “That’s how I play”.

Then I wondered.

Has it occurred to anyone that maybe Forcier was given the chance(s) already to play out the game “his way” tonight against Iowa? Denard Robinson can run and throw well too, not mention make electrifying plays in his own right. Or have we all somehow forgotten how he left defenders eating tire fragments as he scampered into the end zone against Western Michigan and again versus Eastern Michigan in a matter of seconds? Michigan rushed for 195 yards tonight against Iowa’s top 15 defense. Is it then so hard for Michigan fans to imagine Denard Robinson breaking out and scampering 83 yards for a touchdown on the final drive? What if he had just scampered out of bounds well in field goal range and with plenty of time left on the clock? What if he had connected to Odoms at or around the Iowa 31 with those 45 seconds yet to play?

There seems to be a refrain stating something to the effect that Denard "can't do it" and only Tate "can do it".

I don’t think it’s rational to believe that since Forcier achieved his acrobatic feats in games past that therefore the probability is high every time that he would achieve the same or similar feats again and again, week after week. Forcier throws interceptions, makes bad reads and commits fumbles too. He threw 1 INT tonight and also fumbled. And he does it in crunch time as well. We all know how the MSU game ended. On the other side of the coin Robinson played well tonight and, as improbable as it seemed at the time, actually and almost single-handedly brought the Wolverines back from the dead.

In my view, not only did Denard Robinson deserve the opportunity to lead the team and win the football game “the way HE plays it” on this final drive with 1:25 left to play and no freaking timeouts, Rich Rodriguez was right to make that choice.

Forcier had his opportunities, and with 4 out of 5 stalled drives in the second half, a fumble and an INT, a 2 score deficit. Furthermore, switching back to Forcier on the final drive despite Robinson’s previous touchdown drive would have not only been a slap in the face to Denard, but unfair to the rest of the football team, come victory or defeat. Forcier got his reps in and did his damnest. To deny Robinson his shot would not have been right.

Rodriguez didn’t throw away the football game with this last drive decision. College football is a team sport. The outcome of football games (the final score) is the product of a progression of multiple events. It’s very common and traditional within our society to attempt to attribute all the glory of such outcomes to one player or once coach. This is how we try to make sense of the unbelievable and the highly improbable in team sports. But this approach underestimates the complexity of events and the speed with which they take place. It’s also rarely the truth. A great many more things contributed to the last second Michigan victories and losses this year than one single player, one play call, or one coaching decision. If we as fans only notice what is immediately before us, only what is most recently apparent to our eyes on the television screen, then we focus on the bad throw, the dropped punt, and then we long for some young kid to re-play yet another epic last-second, game-winning episode. When we do this, there’s a risk that we miss the non-apparent things that are occurring in between, such as a young south Florida kid stepping into the game for the first time of the night, completely cold, no previous reps, under the freezing night sky, and rallying the team to score, helping them all quickly forget that 42 yard Iowa touchdown play which shook the blackened stadium.

This loss hurts. The Michigan football team may be 4-2 tonight, but it is growing up quick right in front of our eyes. We would all be wise not to miss the good stuff.

When Carcajous Attack Hawkeyes

Preview: Michigan at No 12 Iowa, October 10, 2009 – Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa

When You Crave Irrational Exuberance On A Level That Only Brett Musberger Can Deliver:

We’re here LIIIIVE! and it’s Saturday night in Iowa City as the unbeaten Iowa Hawkeyes host the Michigan Wolverines for only their 7th prime time game in Kinnick Stadium! Folks, I’m really going to be doing the play-by-play in this one folks with my good buddy Kirk Herbstreit, so prepare yourself mentally for my over-sensationalization of the game setting, not to mention repeated statistical gaffes. Kirk? OK, uh, Herbstreit's grabbing another beer right now down at the concession stands, so uh… let's continue!

Well, the Hawkeyes really are 5-0 having already survived some tough contests on the road and at home this year. They’re led by one of the better scoring defensive units in the country with a number of starters back from last year, and giving up a measly 13.4 points per game. Norm Parker’s Hawkeye defense is currently ranked 10th in the land against the score and 32nd nationally in yards surrendered per game. All of this after vanquishing some pretty decent opponents like Arizona and Penn State.

Meanwhile, Michigan is 4-1 now, playing their second consecutive road game of the season here tonight. The Wolverines are coming off a late rally loss to in-state rival Michigan State. But I’ll tell you, this Michigan team can certainly display a powerful, balanced offensive attack when they want to, led by their star freshman quarterback from southern California, Tate Forcier. Michigan has proven over and over again that they can score quickly from anywhere on the field and with just about with anyone at the skilled positions. Seven different Wolverines have caught passing touchdowns this year while 6 different Michigan players have scored rushing touchdowns! Iowa’s great defense will somehow need to account for all of those possibilities. Michigan’s been banged up at running back and along the offensive line in recent weeks. The Wolverines’ high-rated rushing attack was successfully doused by the Spartans’ front seven last weekend, so Rich Rodriguez will look to re-establish that rushing game dominance once again here tonight against the Hawkeyes.

Offensively for Iowa they’re led by junior quarterback named Ricky Stanzi. Seven different Hawkeye receivers have caught touchdowns passes this year, so this kid obviously likes to spread it around and keep defenses honest. Despite Iowa’s huge offensive line advantage over their opponents, the Hawkeye rushing attack was a big question mark during the off-season following the graduation of star tailback Shon Greene and a serious knee injury to returning tailback Jewell Hampton. But so far Adam Robinson has answered the call for Iowa with 72 yards per game rushing, 4 TDs and a 4.6 ypc average. Look for Robinson and another fellow tailback Brandon Wegher to get a good number of carries and catches out of the Iowa backfield tonight.

Defensively, boy Michigan is really struggling right now. They’ve given up a lot of yardage on the ground and through the air over the last 4 games. However, they’ve done relatively well against the score, giving up just 23 points per game on average. Without forcing many three- and-outs, the Michigan defense has been spending an awful lot of time on the field this year. Against MSU the Wolverines held the offensively ball for only 20 minutes. It’s going to be a great one. Michigan and Iowa, as the Blackout falls upon us all right here in Kinnick Stadium!

What? You didn’t have the courtesy to bring ME a beer?

Damn you, Kirk!

This football game is important for Michigan for the following reasons:

1. Michigan leads this series 40-10-4 all-time against Iowa on the gridiron. Six of those ten Michigan defeats occurred after the Hayden Fry era began at Iowa in 1979.

2. A victory over Iowa almost certainly secures bowl eligibility and a .500 season for Michigan in 2009 following that disappointing 3-9 record in 2008.

3. A victory over Iowa also keeps Michigan’s Big Ten title hopes alive and increases the team confidence for upcoming road games against Illinois and Wisconsin.

4. A loss to Iowa on Saturday night probably eliminates Michigan’s Big Ten title hopes altogether and likely postpones any chance that the Wolverines will return to the Top 25 for several more weeks.

Three Great Reasons to Wipe That Ridiculous Smile Off Of Your Face:

Tyler Sash: Iowa's Very Own Interception Machine

1. Safety Tyler Sash
If we wanted to know why Iowa is 5-0 right now, we’d look no further then the performance of the Hawkeye defense. Iowa has 8 starters back from 2008 including the follow list of menacing defensemen: DEs Adrian Clayborn, Broderick Binns, DTs Christian Ballard, and Paul Krug, LBs Pat Angerer, AJ Edds and Jeremiah Hunter, not to mention star DB Shaun Prater. But when we look at the Iowa defensive statistics, we immediately notice something else: Kirk Ferentz and Norm Parker have a group that creates a lot of turnovers: 10 interceptions and 4 recovered fumbles after only 5 games. And for some crazy reason, a sophomore safety named Tyler Sash seems to be closely associated with many of them. Sash kind of surprised people last year with 5 interceptions and 147 yards in returns back in 2008. It’s 2009 and the guy already has matched the 5 interceptions and 117 yards in returns. Since Michigan runs a read spread option attack, much of the plays Michigan calls will depend on the position of Iowa’s safeties pre-snap. Tyler Sash defies space and time by being omnipresent all over the field making nice wrapping tackles in open space. It should surprise no one that Sash already leads Hawkeyes football team in solo tackles with 21. Most opponents avoid throwing to Sash’s side of the field.

Unless something changes significantly going into Saturday night’s game, Michigan is going to try and run on this Iowa defense immediately. Except Iowa’s defense is better than Michigan State’s, is currently No. 3 against the run in the Big Ten, and pretty much devoured read spread option attacks of ISU, PSU and Arizona over the last several weeks. If Michigan fails to achieve when running, they’ll turn to the air. This is where Mr. Sash arrives on the scene with a full squirt bottle of Smile Remover.

2.) The Entire Iowa Offensive Line

Iowa OT Bryan Bulaga: "Mongo pancake Prince Kwateng!
Him former leading tackler for Northwestern!"

Yeah, you knew it was coming. Hell, we all did way back in August. These Hawkeye offensive lineman are living, breathing case studies in hugeness. Overall this group is quite experienced and talented: Bryan Bulaga (6-6, 312), Kyle Calloway (6-7, 315), Dace Richardson (6-6, 305), Julian Vandervelde (6-3, 300) and C Rafael Eubanks (6-3, 280). Iowa’s offensive line has worked through some injuries so far this year, but most will be back at full health for the Michigan game. Iowa’s rushing game is only ranked 7th in the Big Ten so far, averaging just 140 yards per game, but with this group back to full health, that stat is destined to be killed. Tailbacks Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher are young but have played remarkably well. Michigan’s defensive line is tiny compared to these behemoths, so expect plenty of trucking by the 3rd and 4th quarter of this one. Since Michigan’s rushing defense is currently as horrible as can be, giving up 153 yards per game (ranked 9th in the Big Ten), well, let’s just say it’s only mid-week and Iowa’s offensive line and running backs are collectively licking their chops for kickoff to finally arrive.

3.) Junior Quarterback Ricky Stanzi

Not Chuck Long. Ricku Stanzi IS Ricky Stanzi.

In my 2009 Big Ten preview, I really thought something ridiculous would happen in the absence of tailback Shon Greene this fall. With no heir apparent replacement at running back for Greene, I believed that Stanzi, now a junior, would step up and become the second coming of Chuck Long. Stanzi has not played like Chuck Long the last 5 games, as his 59% completion percentage, 8 TDs and discouraging 7 interceptions clearly attest. But he does an more than adequate job of leading the Iowa's offense up and down the field. He has a seemingly endless lineup of talented receiver targets like WRs Marvin McNutt (12 rec, 242 yrds, 2 TDs) and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (8 rec, 138 yards, 1 TD). This week star Iowa TE Tony Moeaki returns from injury. Moeaki is big, reliable and a key part of the Iowa offensive attack in play action. The tailbacks too have done a very good job as receivers for Stanzi out of the backfield. The important thing about Ricky Stanzi is that he seems to improve his play in key football games, like the road game at Penn State and Arizona game. Without significant pressure, Stanzi will have a glorious evening against Michigan’s youthful secondary and linebackers.

Iowa's Tight End Tony Moeaki. Coming to an end zone near you.

When Carcajous Attack! On Defense:
By now reality has probably sunk in for most Michigan football fans everywhere. This uncovered reality is that the 2009 Michigan Wolverine football team cannot stop passing offenses. It cannot stop any kind of power run offense either. It can’t really even slow opponents down a little bit. The one thing Greg Robinson’s defense has somehow managed to achieve, rather inexplicably, is force opponent field goals in the redzone. It’s unknown whether such fortune or ability will continue into Michigan’s Big Ten schedule. To understand the gravity of the situation on defense for Michigan this year, all anyone has to do is review how Michigan’s defense played the last two games against Indiana and MSU, and substitute all of those opponent field goals for touchdowns.

Do that now.

Right.

Yeah, me too. Except I couldn't stop crying.

Well, for what it’s worth, Iowa is 6 of 9 this year on field goals, and isn’t exactly scoring a lot of points these days (10th in scoring in B10 with 25 points per game). They haven’t really had to.

The truth is that ever since the Notre Dame game, Michigan opponents have been able to march up and down the football field fancy free. Through the air or on the ground, it doesn’t really make a difference. (If Rich Rodriguez had a preference, he’d probably want opponents to shred his defense by throwing the ball because at least that way his own offense could get the ball back a little quicker.)

Michigan's Defensive End Brandon Graham

If you didn’t like Michigan’s chances against MSU’s passing attack last week on the road, you’ll probably like the Wolverines’ prospects against Iowa even less. Unlike Michigan State, Iowa actually has something resembling an NFL offensive line that has done a good job in pass protection. Similar to MSU, the Hawkeyes have a decent quarterback and a talented cast of receivers and backs. Those backs may not be the fastest on the planet, but they’re do break tackles, block well, and serve as excellent receivers on screen passes. Unless Michigan’s own front four gets regular pressure on quarterback Ricky Stanzi in this game, Iowa will be able to run and pass roughshod over Michigan all night long. Brandon Graham, Mike Martin, Ryan van Bergen and Craig Roh are on notice. They must get pressure or the risk increases that this game gets out of hand fast.

Michigan’s linebackers and secondary were ripped apart last week by a number of screen pass plays to the tailback (MSU’s Glenn Winston). As luck would have it, this just happens to be one of Iowa’s favorite chapters in their offensive playbook – a long repertoire of screen passes to tailbacks, play action downfield posts and flies, as well as quick dump passes to the tight ends. The Michigan linebackers and secondary have received a lot of well-earned criticism so far this year. They’ll need tighten up coverage of Iowa’s WRs and TE’s and show good containment around the edge. Stevie Brown, Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton must show significant improvement in reading play action, taking on much bigger blockers, and find ways to disrupt the routes of Iowa’s big tight ends.

When Carcajous Attack! On Offense:
Last week Michigan tried their bread-and-butter read spread option rushing attack against their opponent’s main strength (MSU’s run defense) and failed in embarrassing fashion with just 28 rushing yards to show for it. Why the epic fail to run the ball against Michigan State? Well, we’re all led to believe that because Rimington Trophy candidate David Molk is out for another 3 weeks at center, and despite all calls to UM’s improved OL depth and experience, the Wolverines offensive line and backfield has suddenly become out of sync. Star running backs Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor were both completely ineffective last week. So Rich Rodriguez and offensive coordinator Calvin Magee will probably introduce some new plays into the offense this week to try and turbo-charge the running game Saturday night. If Iowa’s vaunted defense has shown one weakness at all, it would be their rushing defense (giving up over 122 yds/game). Even so, the Hawkeyes have given up zero (0) touchdowns on the ground this year.

Midichlorians! Yeah Bayy-Bee!

If Michigan’s OL problems aren’t corrected, then they’ll turn to the pass. Can Michigan’s offensive line can protect it’s quarterback long enough to make reads and get the ball away safely? The answer is a qualifed “yes” only because of the midichlorians and waterbug DNA coursing through the cells of Michigan’s starting quarterback Tate Forcier. Iowa’s front seven is truly outstanding, and while the secondary may have given up significant points and the yardage, they possess interception king Tyler Sash at safety and welcome back star Shaun Prater at the cornerback position this week. Forcier will need to step it up a notch because this Iowa defense has dealt with mobile quarterbacks pretty well this year, holding Penn State’s Darryl Clark to just 19 yards rushing and intercepting him 3 times. With the injury at center and the reduced production of the Wolverine offensive line the last two games, Michigan’s pass protection is probably not going to be much better than last week. Rodriguez and Magee must implement passing plays with easy safety valves for Forcier to dish the ball off more quickly when under pressure and take advantage of what will surely be zealous over pursuit by Iowa

Michigan’s offensive players are probably much faster than those faced by the Iowa defense at any time this year. Michigan must exploit speed mismatches wherever they can in this football game.

The Last Time:
On October 21, 2006 Michigan launched a vicious defense and a relentless off-tackle zone rushing attack featuring senior tailback Mike Hart that eventually wore Iowa down in second half of the game, allowing Michigan to separate from a 3-3 tie early in the 3rd quarter to win handily 20-6.

Iowa’s last victory over Michigan was in 2003 in Iowa City when Hawkeye tailback Fred Russell, an Inkster, Michigan native, ran for 110 yards against the Wolverines, setting up three Nate Kaeding’s field goals to lead 12th ranked Hawkeyes (4-1) to a 30-27 victory over 4th ranked Michigan (4-1).

Dammit, why is it that these Iowa-Michigan games have so many damn field goals in them? (BTW, don’t ever watch the 1981 and 1985 games. Ever.)

This will be Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez’s first game ever against Iowa.

Iowa’s head coach Kirk Ferentz is 2-3 all-time versus Michigan since 1999.

What to Expect
First, this Iowa team is better than Michigan State or Notre Dame.

Way better.

Iowa has been playing lights out, blackout, defense against superior opposition and every kind of offensive attack this season, including both pass- and run-centric spread teams and more pro-style offenses. Consider, for example, that Iowa’s opponents this year have a cumulative W-L record of 15-8 compared to the rather unimpressive 11-13 record of Michigan’s last 5 opponents. Michigan hasn’t played anyone, while Iowa clearly has.

Second, on paper at least, Michigan appears to be a much more explosive offensive football team than Iowa because they’re faster, they can score a lot of points very quickly. Michigan has a multitude of scoring weapons to chose from, not to mention their very own Ace of Spades player, freshman quarterback Tate Forcier. Iowa’s defense must find a way to control Forcier’s escape routes and laser-guided passing abilities for a full 60 minutes. This is way easier said than done. But if Iowa can somehow pull that off, (whatever “that” is), then Rodriguez’s spread offense is almost surely dead in the water. Michigan’s offensive line is in disarray and Iowa’s defensive front four is ready to setup camp in Michigan’s backfield. They should be able to reach Forcier frequently in this game, unless he manages to escape or improve the quickness of his release.

Motorhead - Tate Forcier
Pushing up the ante, I know you've got to see me,
Read 'em and weep, the dead man's hand again,
I see it in your eyes, take one look and die,
The only thing you see, you know it's gonna be...

Tate Force-ee-yay!

Tate Force-ee-yay!

The Michigan Difference: Taking Inventory After 5 Games Played

At this time last year, Rich Rodriguez and the Michigan Wolverines were 2-3 after a devastating 25 point loss to Illinois in the Big House 20-45 on national television.

Today Michigan is a surprising 4-1. But if we're honest with ourselves, two of those four victories and the one loss to Michigan State were very close (less the 6 points) and probably could have gone either way. 4-1 yes, but 2-3 or 3-2 were also probable outcomes for Michigan after these first 5 games.

It might sting a little bit to hear this, but low margin victories and losses are not the sign of a championship football team. Decisive victories, however, are. I'm not talking blowouts necessarily. What I mean is winning football games handily by outscoring opponents by a convincing margin (14 pts or more) and utilizing strong enough defensive play to thwart any comebacks. The most powerful championship caliber football teams possess a combination of great defense and high-scoring, potent offenses. Not all championship teams have such characteristics. But the most powerful ones certainly do.

After observing 5 games, Michigan is simply not a championship caliber football team this year. Not yet anyway. This is not to say Michigan isn't any good, or isn't improving, or that the Wolverines aren't a competitive football team. By taking a quick inventory of Michigan's progress after 5 games, we can clearly see that Rodriguez's project to restructure and reformat the Michigan football team has yielded some very interesting results both offensively and defensively. I'll get to the details shortly below.

Performance, experience, talent and skill are still lacking at key positions for Michigan this fall, particularly on defense. This will have repercussions not only for the 2009 football season, but subsequent years as well. Linebacker, cornerback, safety and even defensive end must be shored up with higher-caliber players in the future to ensure productivity. These issues must be minimized as much as possible through consecutively strong recruiting outcomes by Rich Rodriguez and his staff over the next two to three years, particularly against the raging current of other top 10 college football programs recruiting with great success nationally (Florida, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Penn State, USC and LSU). This will be a major challenge.

For now, let's take a quick look at the 2009 football team after 5 games compared to the 2008 Michigan football team at the same interval of time. Of course, the schedules were different so the Wolverines' competition may have been higher or lower on offense and defense during these two years (and periods). We'll first look at a comparison of the Michigan offensive units followed by the defenses of these two years.

The most compelling statistics in my view are Michigan's yards per point as well as some of the individual statistical variances between 2009 and 2008.

The Michigan Difference: 2009 Offense vs. 2008 Offense - First 5 Games

OFFENSE	2009	2008	Variance
Points	170	103	67
Points/Gm	34	20.6	13.4
Rushing Yds	1040	614	426
Passing Yds	903	845	58
Yds/Gm	388.6	291.8	96.8
Plays	339	321	18
Yds/Play	5.79	4.55	1.24
Points/Play	0.51	0.32	0.19
Yards Per Point	11.69	15.02	-3.33
INTs	5	5	0
Fumbles Lost	2	11	-9
Avg Time of Poss.	26:32:00	26:23:00	0:09:00

Offensively, Michigan's 2009 football team has to travel 3 yards less than it did a year ago to score 1 point. This means that Michigan's offense is demonstrating greater effectiveness this fall than 2008. Gee, ya think!?

Michigan's offense is also doing other things rather nicely like, oh, I don't know, how about not giving away expensive Christmas presents to opponents months in advance (fumbles and interceptions), scoring way many more points per game, running more plays, gaining more yards per play, as well as becoming more versatile and balanced (rushing versus passing yardage), etc.?

The Michigan Difference: 2009 Defense vs. 2008 Defense - First 5 Games

DEFENSE	2009	2008	Variance
Pts Allowed	117	136	-19
Points/Gm	23.4	27.2	-3.8
Yds/Gm	392	347	45
Plays	358	341	17
Yds/Play	5.47	5.05	0.42
Points/Play	0.32	0.4	-0.08
Yards Per Point	20.87	17.91	2.96
INTs	6	3	3
Fumbles Recovered	4	7	-3
Avg Time of Poss.	26:32:00	26:23:00	0:09:00

Defensively, Michigan appears to have improved in the other direction, although recent performances against Notre Dame, Indiana and Michigan State might have us all wondering about the accuracy of "getting better".

In terms of yards per point, the 2009 Wolverine defense is clearly forcing opponents to gain 3 more yards for every point they wish to score. This means that while the Michigan defense might be giving up hectares of real estate to their opponents this year, that real estate is going down in value, i.e. they've been pretty stingy on the scoring side of things (so far). Michigan's defense is giving up 4 points fewer per game than last year.

If your stomach is doing somersaults whenever Michigan happens to be on defense, this is because Greg Robinson's defense is allowing 50 more total yards per game in 2009 than last year. It doesn't help that Michigan is also allowing offenses 9 more minutes of possession time than 2008. The Wolverines also appear to be content giving up higher yards per play than 2008 (5.47 versus 5.05). It might feel bad all around, but the results on the scoreboard so far have improved (19 fewer points surrendered over first 5 games).

Take some Pepto-Bismol and lie down. That's all I can tell you.

So What's The Right Question to Be Asking At This Stage?
Of Michigan remaining seven opponents: atIowa, Delaware State, at Illinois, Penn State, at Wisconsin, Ohio State, how many games will be "probable close wins or losses" versus "decisive victories"?

So far Michigan has beaten two very weak teams (WMU 2-3, EMU 0-4) by decisive margins. Michigan has beaten two mediocre opponents (ND 4-1, Indiana 3-2) by rather low margins (by about 3 points each) . The Wolverines have also lost to a mediocre MSU football team (2-3) by 6 points in OT.

It'd be different if Michigan had beaten Indiana in the same fashion that it had manhandled WMU and EMU. Yet, the fact that Michigan struggled with the Hoosiers all four quarters and had to pull a rabbit out of their hat to win, and almost repeated the feat the following weak against MSU suggests that the Wolverines are an unpredictable, shaky and terrifying football team to be playing right now. Personally, I simply cannot trust that we really know how good or bad Michigan really is. If there's any good news, it's that we don't have long to wait very much longer to find out the truth. We'll know more late Saturday night following Michigan's second road game against a pretty good Iowa football team.

If Michigan beats Iowa, then we're probably watching an 8 win football team this year.

If Michigan loses to Iowa on Saturday night, then I submit to you that we are probably looking at a 6-6 or 7-5 football team.

As of now, it looks to me as though Michigan should be able to defeat Delaware State, Illinois and Purdue in the weeks following the Iowa game. That would provide Michigan at least 7 wins on the year. Such an achievement would also serve as a nice stepping stone for Rich Rodriguez and staff from 3-9 a year ago to bowl eligibility and redemption.

Sore Shoulders? No Wonder.

Michigan State (2-3) held off a late overtime rally by Michigan (4-1) in East Lansing on Saturday.

It never should have come down to that, but it did.

This is because MSU had beaten Michigan in virtually ever facet of the football game for the first 55 minutes of play. It was only in the final 5 minutes, trailing the Spartans 6-20, that Michigan freshman quarterback Tate Forcier decided to walk up to the line of scrimmage, put the entire game and Wolverine football team on his back and try to pull off another adventure of the improbable. The Wolverine offensive coaching staff could only look on in disbelief.

Michigan approached the game with confidence. And why not? They were unbeaten at 4-0, a top of the Big Ten standings, and had seemingly redeemed themselves from the 3-9 record of their hellish season past. Meanwhile Michigan State was reeling at 1-3 after three consecutive defeats.

In the game Michigan first tried to match strength for strength with the Spartans, but simply could not move the ball on the ground against the MSU’s 4-3 defense. The Wolverines managed only 28 yards rushing on the day.

With just 5 minutes left in the game, it looked like Rich Rodriguez and offensive coordinator Calvin Magee had finally experienced an epiphany. It turned out that indeed Michigan State’s defensive secondary wasn't that good after all. Just like those crazy team scouting reports and hours of game film had confirmed and demonstrated all along! And so it was that with 4:47 remaining young Mr. Forcier, in obvious and considerable pain from his injured shoulder, launched a rocket pass to sophomore wide receiver Darryl Stonum covering 59 yards for the score.

Spartan Stadium shocked. The sun starting to peek out while clouds still hovered.

Michigan 13, MSU 20.

Forcier wasn’t done yet. The Michigan defense, which had been ground all afternoon into fine powder by the surprising running (and less surprising) passing prowess of Spartan quarterback Kirk Cousins, forced a rare three-and-out possession. Now with 2:53 on the clock and down by 7 points, Forcier went to work again for Michigan, this time from the Wolverines’ own 7 yards line.

Of the 93 yards that Michigan would traverse in 2 minutes and 51 seconds, Forcier was responsible for 39 on the ground and 39 through the air. The Spartans would of course do their share to help out and donate another 15 yards on a penalty. On 3rd and 8 with 00:08 showing on the clock, Forcier connected on a 9 yard touchdown pass to Roy Roundtree with 00:02 to play.

Tie Game 20-20 and on to overtime!

And that's where our illustrious fairy-tale ends.

The Spartans ran in a 24 yard score during the last overtime possession to win the game by 6 points, 26-20, sending Rodriguez, Forcier and the entire Michigan football team back on the road, wondering only what could have been.

As of the end of last week it looked like the Michigan State Spartans’ football season had been caught in a maelstrom and was about to be summarily smashed against the rocks. An emotional contest against hated cross-state rival Michigan was exactly what Michigan State needed to pull up their collective bootstraps and perhaps right their wayward ship once again. I distinctly remember some overly creative Detroit sports journalist using the phrase: “Time will tell” in a recent column headline. OK, Time will tell.

As for Michigan, they must collect themselves and heal injuries. The coaching staff must determine what went wrong with the vaunted read spread option running game that had done fairly well the previous 4 games, and then make corrective adjustments.

Defensively, as bad as it looked Saturday against MSU at times and the week before against Indiana (and by the way, it looked godawful most of the first 3 quarters on Saturday), Greg Robinson’s defense is actually finding ways to force field goals and keep the young Wolverines in football games.

For the first two games, the offense carried the Michigan team to victory with a balanced running and passing attack and by simply outscoring the opposition. Despite the loss on Saturday and the surrender of 400+ offensive yards again, the Michigan defense may actually be finally finding it’s bearings. The wheels aren’t coming off the Michigan offense, but clearly the injury to center David Molk is causing major disruption in the rhythm of the Wolverine rushing attack. It’s doubtful that this can be corrected completely with another week of practice.

Your shoulders are sore? Well, it's Because We've Been Riding Them Since Game 2!
As outstanding and heroic as Tate Forcier has been so far this year, there are seven games left and it’s time for him to settle down as the starter. Forcier is simply waiting way too long to get rid of the football. This could be on the UM receivers not getting open, the lack of decent pass protection or the lack of a safety valve receiver on certain plays. It could also be Forcier’s inexperience.

In my view, however, the “freshman mistake” comments need to end right here and right now. Forcier has already started 5 collegiate football games this year. This practice of holding on to the ball until the last moment is something Forcier must recognize as a serious risk and try to minimize it. Yet, the long pauses and Fran Tarkenton impressions keep coming week after week. The scrambling around and throwing off the back foot is going to create turnovers, possibly cause injuries, and likely place Michigan’s already porous defense in the worst of possible circumstances.

But what happens? With an beautiful TD throw here and a shocking first down play there, it's amazing to me how all of this recklessness is so quickly forgotten. And at what cost? If no one is open, take off and get some yards, or just throw it away. In the game of college football, you can still be the game hero by not being the hero.

While Forcier can certainly do more to help himself become more patient, the Michigan seniors need to step up and remind Forcier that they intend to contribute as well. And if they do this, they have to actually deliver! Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown, Greg Mathews, Mark Ortmann, David Mooseman must show some burst over the next 7 games.

It is not right to have the success of this football season ride on Forcier's busted shoulders alone.

On the Wolverines’ horizon lie a tough, 12th-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes team that resembles Michigan State in many ways, except perhaps that they’re much better offensively than predicted in the off-season, with arguably the biggest and best offensive line in the entire Midwest. Iowa’s defense has played remarkably well this year against run-oriented offenses including spread formation teams like Iowa State, Arizona and Penn State. They are known for causing turnovers, particularly interceptions. If Michigan's defense can't control a quarterback like Kirk Cousins of Michigan State, they're going to have an "interesting" time against Iowa's Ricky Stanzi.

Expectations for a Young Team
As a last comment following the Wolverines' loss to Michigan State this weekend, I will say this: Michigan’s football team is remarkably young. It’s easy see that this football team possesses significant talent and promise for the future. Only 2 players will graduate from the starting lineup on defense this fall: DE Brandon Graham and LB Stevie Brown. On offense, Michigan will lose 5 players to graduation: TB Brandon Minor, TB Carlos Brown, WR Greg Mathews, OG David Moosman and OT Mark Ortmann.

When Michigan was unbeaten at 4-0, as excited as everyone was, many failed to recognize that two of the wins were close, non-decisive wins (ND, Indiana). The other two victories were rather expected, decisive wins (WMU and EMU). Saturday a close loss has been added to Michigan's experience. This Wolverine football team is going to continue to grow and surprise people. It would be a mistake, for example, for teams like Penn State, Wisconsin or Ohio State to discount Michigan this year. The high expectations that came with 4-0 now need to be appropriately adjusted following Saturday’s performance.

The Michigan offense and defense are not where they need to be to win a Big Ten title. Rodriguez’s read spread option offense is not running on all cylinders. The defense is giving up way too many big plays.

So what exactly can Michigan fans expect over the next seven games?

1. A good number of explosive plays and scores by the Michigan offense.

2. A high number of explosive plays and scores given up by the Michigan defense.

3. Close, barn-burner, cardiac-arrest-inducing UM victories.

4. Excruciatingly-close UM defeats.

5. More moments of brilliance which will foreshadow a bright future.

When Carcajous Attack Spartans

"I hate Michigan more than any of you stupid people!"

When You Crave Irrational Exuberance On A Level That Only Brett Musberger Can Deliver:
“We’re here LIIIIVE! in rainy East Lansing, Michigan, where the Michigan State Spartans host their hated rivals, the Michigan Wolverines! The Spartans have been saying all along this week that Michigan doesn’t respect them. Well, the newsflash for the Spartan team on this one is that Michigan hasn’t been respecting the Spartans for many, many years. This is because respect isn’t demanded and received just like that. It’s gotta be earned.

The Spartans have had bragging rights since last years 35-21 win in Ann Arbor, and Dantonio has turned some heads on the recruiting trail in the state of Michigan as well. Still, there has been a curious reversal of fortunes since the 2009 began for these two teams. MSU was 9-4 last year under Mark Dantonio. Michigan was a horrid 3-9 under first year head coach Rich Rodriguez. Today Michigan enters this game 4-0 led by an exciting freshman quarterback Tate Forcier, who is a little banged up coming in here. Meanwhile, Michigan State is struggling for answers with a shocking 1-3 start. The Spartans lost a heartbreaker in this very stadium by two lousy points to Central Michigan on a last second field goal. The next week they were beaten by three points by rival Notre Dame on the road. Then last week the Spartans basically had the floor taken out from under them by the Badgers of Wisconsin in Madison 30-38. Michigan last week escaped the jaws of defeat at the hands of Indiana by only 3 points.

The defenses of both of these teams have struggled considerably in recent weeks. The Wolverines have managed to overcome their defensive weaknesses with a higher-scoring and balanced offensive attack.

Michigan and MSU have played only one common opponent this year: Notre Dame. Michigan of course won that game by only 4 points and in the final seconds. MSU lost to the Irish by only 3 points on the road.

So the question is, which MSU team will show up today? Michigan State must win this game to salvage their football season. Michigan must win this game to keep the sports media dogs off Rich Rodriguez. This should be a great game, but the weather really sucks here right now. I’m soaked to the bone already, dammit! Take it away Markus!”

This football game is important for Michigan for the following reasons:

1. Michigan owns this rivalry series 67-29 all-time. Historically speaking Michigan State football teams just don’t beat Michigan football teams in back-to-back years. It’s been thoroughly and repeatedly tested in scientific laboratories all over the world with published findings in hundreds of journals. Despite the anomaly that occured 1965-66-67, it's sort of a scientific law now, or something.

2. MSU fans had the audacity to chant “Little-Sister” after the 35-21 victory in Ann Arbor last year. Does such raw insolence go unpunished? Little Sister, no. Twisted Sister, maybe.

3. Mark Dantonio frowns a lot. It’s because he hates Michigan with every fiber of his being and much more than any previous Spartan football coach or fan in history. His hatred for UM is greater than that of John L. Smith, Nick Saban, George Perles, Darryl Rodgers and Denny Stolz combined. The only problem is that Michigan football players just love to see that frown on the clown.

4. Bowl eligibility. Michigan wins this game and they’re 5-0, one victory away from bowl eligibility after a 3-9 season. A 5-0 Michigan would also cast a foreboding cloud over Iowa’s night game against the upstart Wolverines on October 10th in Iowa City. An MSU team at 1-4 is just "Schadenfreude mit Kirsche und Schlagsahne darauf"

Three Great Reasons to Wipe That Ridiculous Smile Off Of Your Face:

1. Captain Kirk Cousins

61% of passes, 7 TD, 2 INT and 850 yards.
Kirk Cousins is not yet the greatest quarterback you’ll ever see. But he’s good and can inflict plenty of battle damage. He’s also one of the two main reasons why MSU’s passing attack is ranked No. 3 in the country. The other reason is backup QB Keith Nichol (50% compl., 5 TD, 2 INT, 403 yards) and a long list of talented wide receivers with very good hands. Unlike most college football fans, I think a two quarterback system can be very beneficial on many fronts. But by now it should be abundantly clear to Mark Dantonio that Kirk Cousins separated from Nichol way back in the CMU game. Since Michigan hasn’t fielded a legitimate pass defense since the 2007 Capital One Bowl, Cousins (Nichol or any green-clad individual under center for that matter) should have a great game throwing against the dainty Wolverine secondary players not named Donovan Warren. (Now just watch Cousins do the exact opposite and throw right at Warren. Sheesh!) I’m serious when I say that, if the weather cooperates, MSU’s quarterbacks could very well have a record day against Michigan through the air.


2. Mean Green Tacklin' Machines - MSU's Linebackers

So after losses to Notre Stain and Wisconsin, the MSU defense is getting a lot of bad press this week. But I’m not buying it at all. Well, not yet anyway. In my view, the Spartans have some of the best linebackers in the Big Ten including junior Greg Jones, senior Adam Decker and junior Eric Gordon. These guys are good players and they’ll likely be all over the field Saturday, including possibly, and with a certain degree of regularity, the Michigan backfield. Michigan has played 4 opponents so far and has beaten them all. None of those opponents had linebackers nearly as good as Michigan State’s.

3. The Blair White Project

OK, yeah, so BJ Cunningham made an acrobatic TD catch last week against Wisconsin, and Mark Dell, Keyshawn Martin and TE Charlie Gantt are all talented, experienced and dangerous Spartan receiving targets as well. I agree, man. But to me the guy to watch out for is usually well under the radar, keeps to himself, does his blue collar blocking jobs, goes dark for a few series, and then all of the sudden shows up at the freak show on 3rd and long with octopus hands saying “Surprise! I’m wide freaking open! Bwahahahaha!”.

Touchdown, aaaaaand cut!

That’s wide receiver Blair White. White really came on the scene last year with 659 yards receiving, but with just 1 TD. In 2009, after only 4 games White already has 350 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns. This is going to be a record year for White.
And since Michigan’s secondary can stop essentially nobody from throwing the football and gaining continentally-sized chunks of yardage, not to mention easy touchdowns, I expect all of the MSU receivers to have a great day on Saturday, particularly our friend Mr. White.

When Carcajous Attack! On Defense:
After watching the last 4 Michigan football games, 2 decisive wins against weak opponents (WMU and EMU) and 2 close wins against what we must agree are “meh” opponents (ND, Indiana), Michigan fans have few reasons to be sweating buckets of confidence as their team goes on the road against the No. 3 passing offense in the country this weekend.

On defense, you can expect MSU to attack Michigan’s weak points almost immediately. In case you’re wondering, those would be the Michigan cornerbacks and safeties. MSU’s barrage will include long posts, deep outs and just about anything and everything to JT Floyd’s side of the field. By the end of the year, Mr. Floyd will either be a damn good cornerback for Michigan, or a 3rd gear version of Morgan Trent. The jury is still out. Floyd and Kovacs are going to get a major workout against Dell, Cunningham, Martin and White. What should help is the return of Michael Williams at safety this week alongside safety Troy Woolfolk.

The other Wolverine weak point is the Michigan middle: the linebackers. This is where MSU tight ends come in: junior Charlie Gantt, sophomore Brian Linthicum and even freshman Dion Sims. These guys already have 20 catches for over 350 yards and 3 TDs after just 4 games. They will be called upon frequently in this game. Despite a pretty talented front four, Michigan has been inconsistent in getting pressure on and sacking the quarterback. Much will be required of DT Mike Martin and DE Brandon Graham in this football game. Michigan’s other defensive end, Ryan Van Bergen (Ryan of the Mountains!) got angry and blew up an entire offensive series for Indiana last week with his own bare hands like some jealous Neolithic era god grappling lightning bolts in one hand and a massive hammer in the other. Can Van Bergen show the same kind of rage in Spartan Stadium on Saturday? This is what Michigan needs, because Graham is getting double-teamed like no tomorrow.

The inescapable fact is that, at least today, there’s no evidence to suggest Michigan can stop Michigan State’s passing attack, or any other passing attack for that matter. There is danger that MSU could get an early and decisive lead in this game as a result. Against the run, the last three lead running backs against Michigan have done remarkably well: Indiana Darius Willis 152 yards, 2 TDs, Eastern Michigan Dwayne Priest 91 yards, 1 TD, Notre Dame Armando Allen 139 yards, 1 TD. Preliminary indication is that MSU’s Ray, Caper and Winston should gain good yardage against UM’s demonstrably porous run defense.

When Carcajous Attack! On Offense:
If Rich Rodriguez and Calvin Magee are smart men, then they’re going to attack MSU’s weakest link on defense. That would of course be the Spartan secondary. The Spartan defensive backs were actually supposed to be a strength of the team this fall. But if you believe Michigan’s secondary sucks (and it most certainly and thoroughly does at this stage of the season), it’s still a few micron-sized degrees better than Michigan State’s for two reasons: The Wolverines haven’t given up quite many points per game, and at least with the Michigan secondary there’s a remote threat of an interception taking place.

If only Michigan quarterback Tate Forcier were 100% healthy for this game, then I could make the argument that Michigan State is, generally speaking, in big, big trouble this Saturday.

But he’s not. And they’re not.

Forcier shoulder is very sore.. He’s still the same freshman as he was last week, running around trying to make shit happen, often attempting to do way too much on his own. Forcier’s talent, skill and creativity is unquestioned for freshman, but he’s now getting smacked around like a ragdoll as was predicted in the preseason. On the road, against MSU’s fast and punishing linebackers, not to mention starting DE Trevor Anderson, this scrambling around approach by Forcier could be a big problem for him and Michigan. Forcier must re-assume the role of “point guard” and dish the ball off more quickly to players far more robust than he, who can make gains, score the points and take the punishment. As exciting as second string quarterback Denard Robinson is as at running the football, if Forcier ever goes down with injury, Michigan’s high octane offense basically loses it’s starboard engine and will eventually crash.

Now if Rodriguez and Magee are creatures of habit, they’ll pound the ball between the tackles and around the ends like Wisconsin did and probably find some measured success as well against MSU. But it won’t be enough to win the football game. Michigan has been doing a good job of scoring and rushing so far, but in my estimation MSU has the best front 7 that Michigan’s offense has ever faced to date, and could stall several key Michigan drives. Michigan desperately needs to make the most of every offensive possession in this game, which means scoring touchdowns and not settling for field goals. MSU’s team confidence is shaken right now. Michigan must capitalize on this quickly and decisively.

The Last Time:
On October 25, 2008 the small MSU crowd in the stands of the Big House chanted “Little-Sister” repeatedly as the clock ran down to 00:00. Final score: Michigan State 35, Michigan 21. A closer look reveals that the game was tied at halftime 14-14. Then the Spartans were delivered grapes, wine and a victory on a silver platter by the Wolverine football team . Michigan proceeded to throw 3 interceptions, lose 1 fumble, and were penalized for 70 yards. Michigan accomplished only 252 yards of total offense compared to MSU’s 473. Michigan is 67-29 versus Michigan State all-time since 1899. The Wolverines have not lost back-to-back games to the Spartans since 1965-1966-1967 football seasons. The last MSU victory over Michigan in Spartan Stadium was eight years ago: 2001 MSU 26, Michigan 24.

What to Expect:
With both defenses playing so badly the last 3 games, I’d normally respond by saying that this is going to be a “very high scoring affair”. However, the East Lansing weather forecast for Saturday suggests 40% chance of rain and 54 degrees. I’m convinced that the game outcome will rest on the best rushing offense in yards gained, fewest lost yardage to penalties, and of course fewest insidious turnovers. Michigan’s best offensive player in close games is without question Tate Forcier, but he will not be 100%. It’s second best players are running backs Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown right now. Michigan State’s best player is probably quarterback Kirk Cousins and his favorite wide receiver Blair White. In rainy weather, neither MSU nor Michigan will be able to fully capitalize on their respective defensive weaknesses: the defensive backs. MSU’s offense so far has been a much more pass-oriented one. Michigan’s has been fairly balanced, but slightly more run-oriented. If the weather is wet, Michigan’s chances to win this game are likely increased to some extent. Michigan is out to legitimize it’s Cinderella turnaround with a victory over it’s second key rival, while MSU’s season essentially rises and falls on this game (what else is new?). Both teams should be breathing fire as a result.

WCA Prediction: Michigan State 31, Michigan 28

Winfred Cooper: Future Michigan Wolverine

During trying economic times like these with increased foreclosures, rising unemployment, bottomed out consumer confidence, and rampant mortgage fraud, it makes me wonder where all the goodness has gone.

Sometimes people tune it all out and just focus on football. I do that sometimes.

But every now and then you run across a great story about something bigger and better than football. Like the story below from journalist Jamie Sotonoff of the Daily Herald.

Read it. It will lift your spirit and warm your heart right up.

Winfred Cooper is a high school football player for Elgin High School in Elgin, Illinois, a community located west-northwest of Chicago. He loves to play football, and has big dreams for his future, including someday becoming a college student and playing football for the University of Michigan Wolverines.

So what happens during a local high school football game between Lake Park and Elgin when Winfred's coaches, teammates, friends, family and even athletic opponents come together and decide to make a difference, even if it's for just one brief moment?

Something wonderful. Something of dreams.

Take it away Jamie Sotonoff.



Hail to the Victors, Young Mr. Cooper! And Go Blue!

Michigan Lands Another Big Kicker

The University of Michigan received the verbal commitment from Will Hagerup of Whitefish Bay, Wisconsin. Hagerup is a 3-star rated Scout.com prospect and the No. 4 rated punter in the country with many other high-profile offers from Ohio State, Alabama, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern.

Hagerup is 6-4 and 210 lbs as a high school senior. This is in alignment with the size and stature of Michigan's more recent punters like Zoltan Mesko (6-5, 238 lbs), Adam Finley (6-4, 209 lbs).

The last Michigan punter who hailed from Wisconsin also played outside linebacker for the Wolverines, John Anderson (1974-1977). Anderson was an All-American for Michigan and an All-Academic Big Ten honoree. Anderson hailed from Waukesha, Wisconsin and went on to star as a Linebacker for Bart Starr's Green Bay Packers in the early 1980s. While playing for Bo Schembechler at Michigan, John Anderson had a 39.5 yard per punt average.

Anderson's most famous play in a Michigan uniform was not a punt at all. It was a bear hug tackle of Ohio State's quarterback Rod Gerald on the Buckeyes' last threatening drive which caused a fumble, which Derek Howard recovered for Michigan, sealing the 14-6 win over Ohio State, the Big Ten championship, a trip to Pasadena, and prompting Ohio's head coach Woody Hayes to throw down his clipboard and punch things - anything - within his direct vicinity. Even an unfortunate ABC sideline cameraman.

Anderson is appropriately numbered "86":


Back to Mr. Hagerup. Yes, he punts like a maniac, and even plays TE for his high school team, the Dukes. You can follow his and the Dukes 2009 gridiron exploits here.

UM Defense: Take All the Yards You Want

It’s rivalry week in the state of Michigan.

Both teams are trying to gear up for the upcoming gridiron showdown in East Lansing this coming Saturday, where Michigan State (1-3) hosts No. 22 Michigan (4-0). These days it is probably true that when it comes to rivalry football games at the collegiate level, you can pretty much throw out team records. Conference rivalry games are different than your run-of-the-mill conference games in that there’s a massive amount of external pressure placed on players and coaches from partisan fans and alumni heading in to the game. There’s a lot of internal pressure generated from the players themselves as well. As a result, emotions really run high heading in to such games. They can get so high sometimes that players and coaches become blind to important assignments and game preparation. After the first hits are exchanged, both teams eventually start to settle down, and the very nature of the college game takes control and gradually overrides all of those pre-game emotions. It’s part of what makes the college game eleventy billion times better than NFL football could ever hope to be.

One month ago, one would have been hard pressed to convince anyone in the Michigan and Detroit sports media, let alone national college football fans, that the Michigan Wolverines would be unbeaten and ranked heading into this football game Saturday.

Going one step further, it would have been next to impossible to convince those same sports pundits that Michigan State would be 1-3 at this stage of the season and positioned last in the Big Ten. I include myself in that group of “would-have-been-difficult-to-persuade’s”.

I thought the “Bakery Basket Opponent” for the Spartans would be Montana State, and I was right. I thought the “Falling Anvil Opponent” for Michigan State would be Michigan.

But today I don’t know. I really don’t know.

If we look at both teams and what they’ve achieved so far, there are some very interesting similarities. In any college football match up, we tend to focus on the differences and any identifiable competitive advantages between the two opponents. Let’s took at some important statistics to compare these two teams after just 4 football games.

Michigan State's Offensive and Defensive Yards Per Point Statistics:

MSU	MSU	Opp	Plays	Yards	PPP	YpPlay	YpPoint	Opp Yards	Def YpPoint
Mont.St.	44	3	75	493	0.59	6.6	11.2	160	53.3
CMU	27	29	56	316	0.48	5.6	11.7	418	14.4
at ND	30	33	65	459	0.46	7.1	15.3	437	13.2
Wisc	30	38	68	486	0.44	7.1	16.2	436	11.5
Total	131	103	264	1754	0.50	6.6	13.4	1451	14.1

Michigan's Offensive and Defensive Yards Per Point Statistics:

UM	UM	Opp	Plays	Yards	PPP	YpPlay	YpPoint	Opp Yards	Def YpPoint
WMU	31	7	78	439	0.40	5.6	14.2	301	43.0
ND	38	34	71	430	0.54	6.1	11.3	490	14.4
EMU	45	17	56	448	0.80	8.0	10.0	285	16.8
Ind	36	33	74	372	0.49	5.0	10.3	467	14.2
Total	150	91	279	1689	0.54	6.1	11.3	1543	17.0

MSU Offense Vs. Michigan Defense

Michigan State’s offense is currently 22^nd in the land, average a staggering 438 yards per game. They are ranked 34^th in scoring, averaging 33 points per game. How do the Spartans attack their opponents offensively? They throw the football. They throw, and throw, and then throw some mo’. It’s a weird change from 2008, particularly when one considers the young talent and speed of the MSU backfield of Caulton Ray, Larry Caper and Glenn Winston. Yet Michigan State’s passing attack is ranked 3^rd in the country right now! I read that and think, Christ, does former quarterback Ed Smith have another year of eligibility we didn’t know about? Did Dantonio hand over the keys to former coach Darryl Rodgers before heading to the Bahamas or something? MSU averages 321 yards passing to only 118 yards rushing per game. While on paper the Spartans are looking powerful offensively, the problem for Michigan State football this year has been translating all of that marching up and down the field into something meaningful on the scoreboard. MSU has been outscoring it’s opponents only 33 to 26 over the last 4 games. Unfortunately, their offensive Yards per Point have been increasing each week against tougher and tougher defenses. MSU’s average Yards per Point statistic is currently 13.4. For every 13 yards gained offensively by Kirk Cousins and Co., they score 1 point.

So what happens when the Spartans unleash their aerial assault on Michigan this coming Saturday? They’re going to gain lots and lots of real estate, that’s what. In 2009 Michigan defensive team can only be described in four words:

“Aaaahhhhhhrrgghhhaaaaawwgodt!”

OK, actually I really meant “Bend But Not Break”.

Against the pass this year, Michigan has been spectacularly awful (to put it mildly): 975 yards given up, 244 yards per game, ranked 102^nd of all 120 FBS teams. Rushing defense is only slightly better, but nothing to crow about: 568 yards given up, 142 yard per game, and ranked 77^th in the land.

But when it comes to scoring defense, Michigan’s "Bend But Not Breakedness" in 2009 shows up on Saturday like an unexpected jack-in-the-box, giving up only 23 points per game and ranked 58th in the country against the score. Michigan’s Defensive Yards per Point after 4 games is, well, startling: 17.0. This means that UM opponents need to gain 17 yards to score a single point (on average) against the Wolverines.

So yes, Michigan’s defense has allowed opponents of every level of offensive potency to march up and down their backyard. For all I know, GERG and the Michigan defensive players may as well be serving their opponents free refreshments while they toil away running max protect 52 red stack all game long. But despite all their “fun in the sun” against Michigan offensively, Wolverine opponents have been so far unable to capitalize on such efforts and place points to the scoreboard.

That’s where the bending comes in.

You know – bent over completely with discoloration at cracks and the seams, coming damn close but not quite snapping right in half?

Yeah. That’s Michigan’s defense this year.

Yet, with this being Michigan’s first road test against a hated cross-state rival, one might call into question Michigan’s ability to successful mix past fortune with the walking disaster that represents Michigan’s overall defense and expect anything but a huge letdown this week.

Michigan Offense Vs. MSU Defense

If there’s any goods news in 2009, it’s that Michigan has officially turned the corner offensively. That’s right. It hasn’t always been pretty, and there will most certainly be moments of horror to come in 2009, but even the most disingenuous doubters must now admit that Rodriguez has done his homework and laid a foundation for those same strategies and tactics that worked so well at West Virginia between 2002 and 2007 to find root and flourish at Michigan.

Offensively, the Wolverines are ranked similarly to the Spartans nationally, averaging 422 yards per game, 38 points per game, and ranked 30^th in total offense. When it comes to running the ball, Rodriguez has proven that his methodology for this game delivers results in about 24 months. Michigan’s rushing offense is currently ranked a jaw-dropping 7^th in the country. The Wolverines now average 240 yards per game on the ground per game. The Wolverine passing offense is certainly not high on yardage, 182 yards per game and ranked 69^th nationally, but Michigan already has 7 passing TDs in 4 games.

Defensively, Michigan State is about as pathetic as Michigan has been. The Spartans are almost identically useless at pass defense, giving up 997 yards passing so far, 249 yards per game, and ranked 105^th nationally. Against the run, MSU is clearly better than Michigan, giving up 114 yards per game, ranked 52^nd nationally. Against the score, the Spartans are giving up a comparable 26 points per game on average.

So What Gives?

OK, so Michigan State slays opponents by carpet bombing them from the air and displaying some decent run defense. Meanwhile, Michigan shreds you to ribbons with a deceptive read option rushing attack and just outscoring you because they know the defense couldn’t stop a 90 year old lady from Pasadena from rushing 85 yards for a touchdown.

Is that all? Is there any other compelling difference here between the two teams?

Above we noted that MSU’s offensive yards per point has been 13.4 so far. Michigan’s offensive yards per point is 11.3. So one difference is that offensively speaking, Michigan has been less prolific than Michigan State, but far more effective in terms of translating yards gained into points scored.

While MSU is doing an equally horrible job on defense of stopping anyone this year as Michigan, their total defensive Yards per Point is 14.3. This is worse than Michigan’s defensive yards per point of 17.0 so far after 4 games. This means that Michigan’s defense is forcing opponents work harder and gain more yards in order to score points than Michigan State’s defense is.

The Good Match Ups Unfortunately Don’t Match Up

When MSU is on offense, it will be MSU’s strength (awesome passing) versus Michigan’s weakness (god awful pass defense).

Sparty, here’s that perfect scenario you’ve been looking for but could never find after the first 4 games.

Wolverines, wake up! Coffee’s on! Hibernation time is over!

When Michigan is on offense, it will be UM’s strength (turf shredding, rototiller ground game goodness) versus MSU’s strength (run defense). Optimal situation for Sparty. Not the end of the world for Michigan, but certainly not ideal.

Unbreakable my ass

Michigan will not be able to stop Michigan State offense from gaining continent-sized chunks of yardage in Spartan Stadium. It would require a Herculean defensive effort and a major overhaul of the Wolverine linebacking corps and secondary to make stopping MSU an even remote possibility.

In summary, defensively speaking, Michigan is a bad football team. As if the Indiana and EMU games didn’t make that abundantly clear. The Spartans will ensure plenty of exposure to this truth on Saturday. Offensively speaking, this is the perfect game for Michigan to unleash the throwing prowess of Tate Forcier and his long list of healthy receivers like Greg Mathews, JR Hemingway and Kelvin Grady. By now there is no mystery anymore that Michigan State cannot stop and will not stop anyone through the air this fall. Unfortunately, Forcier is injured, may not play, and even if he does will not be 100%. Due to the anemic play of the Michigan defense, Forcier will also likely find himself in circumstances that require him to try to do too much. Whereas Indiana’s defensive front 7 was pretty tough at times, Michigan State’s might be the best defense Michigan has faced all season.

Penalties and Special Teams

Sometimes rivalry games go down to the wire and like that ridiculous sport called "soccer", it can all boil down to penalties and infuriating sissy kicks in the final moments to determine the victor.

Michigan and Michigan State are comparable in the penalties department. MSU has 28 for -221 yards, and Michigan has 25 for -209 yards. So both teams probably cancel out on the probability of penalties, though I would be unsurprised to see UM to get the shitty end of the stick with penalties and officiating on the road in East Lansing this weekend. Just somebody watch the clock, please.

As for special teams, both punters are excellent. Michigan’s Zoltan Mesko has a 44.3 average while MSU’s Aaron Bates is just killing it this year with a 45.6 average. For PATs and field goals, both teams have been extremely well served by their specialists. Michigan’s walk-on kicker Jason Olesnavage is 19 of 19 on PATs and 3 of 4 on FGs with the longest being 44 yards. MSU’s Brett Swenson is 14 of 15 on PATs and 6 of 7 on FGs with a long of 45 yards.

A final game preview of Michigan at Michigan State will be coming soon later this week.....