Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Big Ten Football Predictions for 2009 (An Intro)

In the coming weeks I will posting predictions for each Big Ten football team for the 2009 season. I'm finishing up quite a bit of research of each team, including a full review 2008 results, 2009 schedules, starting lineups, returning starters, and offensive and defensive team statistics.

From just a cursory level of research, and by combining a couple of factors, I wanted to share some information and results that I found intersting so far. I don't think it's conclusive. It's really just a couple of pieces to a larger puzzle of the upcoming Big Ten football season. These variables won't make much sense by themselves until they get pieced together within a meaningful equation.

Again, I will post a more detailed team-by-team Big Ten football summary analysis for 2009 shortly which I hope readers will find interesting.

2009 Best Big Ten Offenses
Iowa (7 returning starters), 30 pts game, 373 yards game, returning QB
Illinois (7 returning starts), 29 pts game, 439 yards game, returning QB
Wisconsin (6 returning starters), 29 pts game, 405 yards game, returning QB
Penn State (5 returning starters), 40 pts game, 452 yards game, returning QB

2009 Best Big Ten Defenses:
Iowa (7 returning starters), 13 pts game, 290 yards game,
Penn State (7 returning starters), 12 pts game, 264 yards game
Ohio State (7 returning starters, 13 pts game, 279 yards game

Big Ten Teams Improving Offensively- Team returns both best QB and best RB plus has 6 or more offensive starters returning:

Big Ten Teams Struggling Offensively - Team loses best QB and RB plus has 6 or fewer offensive starters returning:
Michigan State

Big Ten Teams Improving Defensively - Team returns best tackler plus has 6 or more defensive starters returning:
Michigan State

Big Ten Teams Struggling Defensively - Team loses best tackler plus has 6 or fewer starters returning:

Big Ten Teams Losing a 1,000 yard rusher to graduation or NFL:
Ohio State (Beanie Wells)
Michigan State (Javon Ringer)
Iowa (Shon Greene)
Wisconsin (PJ Hill)
Purdue (Kory Sheets)

Big Ten Teams Returning a 1,000 yard rusher:
Penn State (Evan Royster)

Big Ten Teams Losing Starting QB:
Michigan State (Bryan Hoyer)
Northwestern (CJ Bacher)
Purdue (Curtis Painter)
Michigan (Steven Threet)
Indiana (Kellen Lewis)

Big Ten Teams Returning Starting QB:
Illinois (Juice Williams)
Iowa (Ricky Stanzi)
Minnesota (Adam Weber)
Ohio State (Terrell Pryor)
Penn State (Darryl Clark)
Wisconsin (Dustin Sherer)

Michigan doesn't pop up much with the above criteria and, in my view, this doesn't bode too well for the Wolverines for the 2009 campaign. On the other hand, if pieces do fall into place this season in only a few areas (QB, special teams, turnovers and defense), Michigan could be a surprise team. More later.

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