It's a no brainer

I know I'm all alone in the belief that freshman Tate Forcier is going to end up being the starting quarterback for Michigan in the 2009 season opener versus Western Michigan on September 5. Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez has been careful to publicly praise all three of the lead players at quarterback, Nick Sheridan, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson on their progress so far in fall camp. That's the right thing to do when they're picking things up, showcasing their skills and taking postive steps forward in the learning process.

But you really don't have to be a 5-star restaurant chef to figure out what key ingredients were missing in the Michigan offense last year. Just by simple Watsonian deduction, we already know exactly who is going to be taking the snaps versus Bill Cubit's Broncos defense. It's going to be Tate Forcier because he possesses in abundance virtually all of the key components that were missing from Michigan's quarterback position last year:

1.) Confidence
It's true. He's a true freshman. But Michigan has started true freshman quarterbacks before. It's important to note just how at home Forcier is in this offense. He loves the game of football and running this offense. And not just a little bit. He can make all the throws, scrambles, option pitches and quarterback draw plays you want as a coach. And he's not afraid to get hit. He played cornerback in high school and frequently made key, open field tackles in the secondary as well as on special teams (Tate was the punter).

2.) Quarterback Speed and Mobility
I've said before that opposing defenses essentially ignored Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan as run threats last year. They did not worry about them as passing threats either. This frequently paid off for Michigan opponents, because:

a.)Michigan's 3rd down success rate was less than 30%,
b.) Michigan's main and only legitimate offensive weapon was the superback McGuffie or Minor or punter Zoltan Mesko,
c.) Sometimes it just paid to do nothing and simply wait for the interception or fumble to fall into your mittens.

Pretty easy.

Well, it's not probably going to be so easy anymore if the eleven guys on defense have to fully account for a quarterback that can run and throw equally well, and who can make big plays when needed most.


3.) Throwing accuracy
Forcier has a stronger arm and greater throwing accuracy than Sheridan. Forcier might appear to be making decisions more slowly than Sheridan right now, but in terms of footspeed, vision, field presence, throwing mechanics and football talent, Forcier has it. The decision speed will come along with more playing time.

None of these key ingredients were present in 2008.

However, the main reason why I believe Forcier will be starting quarterback is this:

Rodriguez can't wait.

The future is now as far as the quarterback position goes, and he has to start turning the ship and winning some football games.

Over his long coaching career Rodriguez has coached the full spectrum of talent and ability at quarterback, from Jed Drenning at Glenville State to Shaun King at Tulane, from Steven Threet at Michigan to Pat White at West Virginia. By now we know what Rich Rodriguez wants in a quarterback. He wants a Turner Gill, a Terrelle Pryor or a Vince Young. He'd take a Tim Tebow, a Zak Kustok, or a Shaun King too.

So I ask you who on the UM roster at quarterback even comes remotely close to resembling such players??

Only Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson bring what's required to the table.

But sure, we could go ahead and torture ourselves again about the 2008 Northwestern game, where the Michigan quarterback connected on just 8 of 29 passes for 61 yards, or the game after that where he threw 8 completions out of 24 attempts for 87 yards in a 35 point shellacking.

There's just no way Rich Rodriguez is going to fool around with that kind of performance again in 2009.

No way.

Quarterback Achievement Under Rod Smith

It’s within the grave realm of possibility that the Michigan football team may start a true freshman at quarterback this fall for only the third time in over 40 years. The last two episodes of such daring ended well statistically for the Wolverines. First there was quarterback Rick Leach between 1975-1978 and then Chad Henne between 2004-2007 respectively. Both of these freshmen quarterbacks became two of the most decorated quarterbacks to ever wear a winged helmet.

Following a 3-9 season in 2008, the hand wringing over the new Michigan quarterback situation might have many Wolverine fans double-checking their blood pressure, taking yoga classes, confirming the on time delivery of that pre-ordered pallet of Pepto Bismol, and signing up for hypnosis sessions to prevent the sure-to-come thunderstorm of household swearing on Saturday afternoons this autumn.

Well actually, it might not be that bad.

Starting true freshmen at quarterback is certainly not Rich Rodriguez’s idea of fun for his second year at Michigan. The 2009 Michigan quarterback situation will require a great deal of coaching resolve, patience and expertise. Thankfully, Rodriguez doesn’t have to develop the new Wolverine signal callers all by himself.

After Rich Rodriguez accepted the job as Michigan head football coach in December 2007, he summarily fired the entire staff of former head coach Lloyd Carr, including Wolverine quarterback coach and recruiter extraordinaire Scot Loeffler. Only UM running backs coach Fred Jackson was rehired. Rodriguez decided to bring in many of his own assistant colleagues from West Virginia with him to Michigan, including offensive coordinator Calvin Magee and quarterbacks coach Rod Smith.

Prior to joining Rodriguez’s staff at West Virginia, Magee and Smith both coached at South Florida University in Tampa under Bulls head coach Jim Leavitt. Magee had been the running game coordinator for the Bulls for 4 years (1997-2000). Rod Smith was the quarterbacks coach from 2001-2004. Smith pulled double-duty as South Florida’s offensive coordinator and QB coach from 2005 to 2006. Jim Leavitt’s well documented disdain for Rich Rodriguez may stem from RichRod’s rather frequent raiding of his South Florida staff over the years, including Magee, Smith and even former USF offensive line coach Greg Frey (now also at UM).


Just one more! I swear, if that SOB steals just one more of my coaches....!

But before Michigan fans commence with the chugging of those bottles of pepto around kickoff September 5th, it might be interesting for them to first consider some thin slices of college football history. Let's go back to a time when Rod Smith first became the South Florida quarterbacks coach under head coach Leavitt.

When Rod Smith arrived in Tampa in 2001, South Florida’s football program was entering its 5th year of existence as an independent. Coach Jim Leavitt was on a streak of sorts, with three straight winning seasons since 1998, including a 7-4-0 record in 2000. The previous Bulls offensive coordinator, Mike Canales, had just accepted a new passing coordinator job at NC State. Canales left Rod Smith the keys to a pretty good quarterback situation at South Florida in junior signal caller Marquel Blackwell.

Blackwell, who was the Bulls starting quarterback for 4 years, recorded a spectacular career at South Florida. He was arguably one of the first key players to help put South Florida football on the map nationally.

Blackwell did not throw all that much his first two seasons – only between 23 and 26 attempts per game in 1999 and 2000. While his accuracy was over 50% during these formative years, the yardage totals were fairly low - between 150-180 yards per game:

Name	Year	Class	Comp.	Att	%	Yards	TD	INT
Marquel Blackwell	1999	Fr.	136	262	51.9%	1620	16	10
Marquel Blackwell	2000	So.	171	296	57.8%	2016	13	4

While operating Canales’ spread option offense, Blackwell did showcase his elusiveness and foot speed. By his sophomore year, Blackwell had become a rather reliable ground gainer for the Bulls.

Name	Year	Class	Rush Att	Gained	Lost	Net	Yds/Carry	TDs
Marquel Blackwell	1999	Fr.	93	394	268	126	1.4	3
Marquel Blackwell	2000	So.	128	771	205	566	4.4	3

So when Rod Smith assumed the quarterback coaching role at South Florida in 2001, what he would prescribe for the South Florida quarterback situation must have seemed counter intuitive at the time. Smith apparently wanted Blackwell to do 2 things very differently:

Throw a lot more and run a lot less.

Of course, Smith didn’t exactly “discourage” Blackwell from running the ball. But he probably wanted his new student to start finding the right running lanes that the spread offense afforded him him. Overall, Smith wanted Blackwell to become more effective using his skills to execute the offense. The result?

Name	Year	Class	Rush Att	Gained	Lost	Net	Yds/Carry	TDs
Marquel Blackwell	2001	Jr.	92	347	106	241	2.6	9
Marquel Blackwell	2002	Sr.	89	425	113	312	3.5	5

Blackwell’s rushing attempts and total rushing yards certainly declined his junior and senior seasons under Rod Smith. But Marquel lost less yardage per carry (hitting the right escape lanes, fewer sacks?), and scored far more rushing touchdowns. Plus, Blackwell maintained his yards per carry average at a level that opposing defenses simply could not ignore.

When it came to passing the football during his junior and senior seasons, the Tampa fire department must have been pretty busy because Marquel Blackwell could only be described as having been “awwn fiyah!”.

Rod Smith ordered passing attempts essentially doubled from the prior two seasons under Canales. Blackwell's passing accuracy stayed the same at <58%, but the yardage numbers and TDs thrown exploded.

Name	Year	Class	Comp.	Att	%	Yards	TD	INT
Marquel Blackwell	2001	Jr.	258	456	56.6%	2882	20	11
Marquel Blackwell	2002	Sr.	230	408	56.4%	2590	18	3

Also, South Florida’s team reached new heights in the win column in 2001 and 2002, with 8 and 9 wins respectively.

In 2003 to 2005, Smith continued to coach South Florida quarterbacks Ronnie Banks (2003-2004) and Pat Julmiste in 2005. Both were considered “dual-threat” quarterbacks, but the on field results were more functional than stellar:

Name	Year	Class	Comp.	Att	%	Yards	TD	INT	Record
Ronnie Banks	2003	Jr.	127	261	48.7%	1448	8	8	7-4-0
Ronnie Banks	2004	Sr.	118	247	47.8%	1570	7	8	4-7-0
Pat Julmiste	2005	Jr.	124	252	49.2%	1489	6	11	6-6-0

Passing accuracy and attempts were way down, and productivity (yards and touchdowns) declined. Neither Banks or Julmiste produced remarkable rushing numbers at quarterback. SFU’s fortunes in the win column appeared to follow suit with only 7, 4 and 6 wins in 2003, 2004 and 2005.

The following year, a 2-star, unranked quarterback recruit from Lakeland, FL named Matt Grothe arrived on campus. Grothe was 6-1 and 190 lbs with 4.59 speed. He had an explosive quarterback resume from Lake Gibson Senior high school with fantastic senior stats for an unranked kid: 2,700 yards passing, 33 TDs, 1,500 yards rushing and 15 more TDs!

Grothe would battle senior Bulls QB Pat Julmiste for the starting spot in 2006 and would win that battle fairly easily. As the 2006 season unfolded, it would become quite clear to Rod Smith and the entire SFU staff that Matt Grothe might become the greatest quarterback yet at South Florida University.

Grothe’s 2006 freshman season performance was very revealing – and not too far removed statistically from what college football observers would come to expect from other spread option quarterbacks like Pat White at West Virginia and Troy Smith of Ohio State of this period.

As a freshman Grothe had, unfortunately, just sprinkled in a few more interceptions into the mix.

Name	Year	Class	Rush Att	Gained	Lost	Net	Yds/Carry	TDs
Matt Groethe	2006	Fr.	178	802	180	622	3.5	9

Name	Year	Class	Comp.	Att	%	Yards	TD	INT
Matt Groethe	2006	Fr.	202	317	63.7%	2576	15	14

Rod Smith left South Florida at the end of the 2006 season to rejoin Rich Rodriguez, at West Virginia and coach the Mountaineer quarterback Pat White in 2006 and 2007. Over his 6 years at South Florida, Rod Smith coached highly talented players like Marquel Blackwell and Matt Grothe and some slightly lesser talented signal callers as well.

South Florida’s aggregate quarterback stats between 2001-2006 (6 years) under Rod Smith were as follows:

Name	Completions	Attempts	Compl. %	Yards	TD	INT	Team Record	Winning Pct
All SFU QBs 2001-2006	1059	1941	54.6%	12555	74	55	43-26-0	0.623

Rod Smith might not be Scott Loeffler (below showing only 4 year span of career):

Coach & Player	Completions	Attempts	Compl. %	Yards	TD	INT	Team Record	Winning Pct
Scott Loeffler with Chad Henne 2004-2007	828	1387	59.7%	9715	87	37	36-14	0.720

Yet from the historical record (without taking Pat White into consideration at all) Michigan’s quarterback coach Rod Smith is proven to be quite a good instructor. More importantly, he knows how to get good production out of his players, particularly when they already possess the basic, natural talents required for the job.

In my view, Smith's past performance bodes well for Michigan’s quarterback future even in the short-term with Nick Sheridan, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson, as well as next year's incoming freshmen.

2009 Big Ten Quarterbacks: Returning Starters and New Candidates

Everyone knows the importance of the quarterback in football, be it college or pro level. Returning a starting quarterback is almost always considered to be a huge plus to any football team in terms of continuity and on-field performance.

Let's review 2008 briefly and the teams that returned starting QBs and the team records:

1.) Penn State 11-2
QB Darryl Clark replaced Anthony Morelli and was far more productive offensively.
Penn State led the Big Ten in scoring 40 pts. per game and in yards per game. Entering the 2008 season Clark was experienced in clean up duty and was very comfortable as starter.
2009 Nittany Lion QB Candidates:
Darryl Clark is back as a senior.
Then there is 2009 incoming freshman Kevin Newsome.
(Paul Ciancolo graduated and backup Pat Devlin transferred to the Delaware Blue Hens)

2.) Ohio State 10-3
QB Todd Boeckmann led OSU to the Big Ten title and national championship game in 2007. In 2008, Boeckmann played second fiddle to freshman sensation Terrelle Pryor at QB.
Buckeyes finished 5th in league scoring and a surprising 9th in yards/game. Great defense is what elevated Ohio State play most of the season. Oh, and a healthy Beanie Wells.
The Buckeyes landed a great freshman class for 2009 and the timing is perfect.
Pryor will need significantly better play for the OL and a rejuvenated running game under Brandon Saine and Jamal Berry. Otherwise, the overwhelming pressure on Pryor will only mount.
2009 Buckeye QB Candidates:
So. Terrelle Pryor
So. Joe Bausermann
2009 freshman recruit Ken Guiton

3.) Michigan State 9-4
QB Bryan Hoyer returned as the Spartans' senior starter for 2008. Offensively, Michigan State was decidedly mediocre in the Big Ten, measuring 6th in the league in scoring and 7th in yard/game. A strong running game, fewer turnovers and adequate defensive play allowed MSU to win key games in 2008. Hoyer graduates in 2008.
2009 Spartan QB Candidates:
Jr. So. Kirk Cousins
Jr. Keith Nichol
2009 Fr. recruit Andrew Maxwell

4.) Iowa 9-4
Redshirt freshman QB Jake Christianson lost his starting job to sophomore QB Rick Stanzi in the second game of the season, a 42-0 shut of Florida International. The Hawkeyes never looked back. With Stanzi under center and Shonn Greene at tailback, the Hawkeyes exploded offensively finishing 3rd in the Big Ten in scoring and 3rd in the league in yard/game - a major improvement of the prior year. The Hawks were the only Big Ten team to win their bowl game by crushing SEC rep South Carolina in embarrassing fashion in the Outback Bowl 31-10.
Jake Christiansen has transferred.
2009 Hawkeye QB Candidates:
Jr. Rick Stanzi owns this position right now.
So. Marvin McNutt
RS Fr. John Wienke
2009 freshman recruit Micah Hyde.

5.) Northwestern 9-4
CJ Bacher and Mike Kafka split duty at QB in 2008. Kafka was more productive (and dangerous) in the spread offense because of his running ability. Kafka has a good throwing arm as well, and I'm sure we'll see him throw more in 2009 since the Wildcat running game of Sutton and Conteh blew up last fall to injury and do not return. Northwestern finished 8th in scoring and 6th in yards/game.
2009 Wildcat QB Candidates:
Kafka is the heir apparent for 2009.
So. Joe Mauro
2009 freshman recruit Evan Watkins.

6) Wisconsin 7-6
Wisconsin had QB issues the minute Tyler Donovan graduated in 2007. Wisconsin finished 4th in scoring and 3rd in yards/game in 2008 in 2008. Not bad. Unfortunately, the Badgers never achieved the consistency they needed under starter Allan Evridge. I sort of expect improved numbers going into 2009 with backups Tolzien or Sherer at the helm, because I think they are more talented players than Evridge was.
2009 Badger QB Candidates:
Jr. Scott Tolzien
Sr. Dustin Sherer
Curt Phillips
2009 recruit Jon Budmayr round out the Badger QB depth chart.

7.) Minnesota 7-6
The Golden Gophers finished 6th in scoring and 10th in yard/game in 2009 under QB Adam Weber. Weber has been sidelined with off-season surgery, so it's not entirely certain whether he'll start the first few games of the 2009 campaign. He may get into the role again later into the season. No team in the Big Ten returns with more total starters on offense and defense than the Golden Gophers (estimated at 18), so it would not surprise me to see Minnesota winning again 7 games or more, upsetting a few Big Ten teams along the way in their new TCF stadium, and then getting embarrassed in a bowl game per tradition. By 2010 this Gopher team could be pretty good. Weber might miss the first 1 or 2 games of the season in 2009.
2009 Gopher QB Candidates:
Sr. David Pittman is the most experienced behind Weber.
Soph. MarQueis Gray
2009 freshman recruit Moses Alipate.
Sr. Adam Weber (surgery)

8.) Illinois 5-7
I'm still trying to figure out how you go from Rose Bowl team, return your starting QB (Williams), return an awesome WR (Benn), and sensational tailback Daniel Dufresne, and not become bowl eligible. I guess this explains Ron Zook's negative recruiting tactics. I think it's also explained by something called "Western Michigan". Regardless, the Fighting Illini return with Juice at QB, and hey, that's all you need, right? Well, minus the 16 soul-crushing interceptions, I mean. Juice Williams is probably the Big Ten's loudest demonstration that it's simply not good enough to have a Pat White under center making big plays and giving defensive coordinators fits. You can't turn the ball over. You need a consistent running game, and the defense has to stop people. It sounds strange to say this, but Juice Williams is entering his senior season for the Illini. He threw for a sick number of yards in 2008, but behind closed doors right now Zook has to be thinking very hard about his QB situation and whether Juice Williams is the right choice. Williams is brilliant....at times. No question about it. He destroyed Michigan (not much of a feat last year, but still) and he almost single-handedly knocked off Ohio State in Columbus a year ago. Still, at other times, Williams' throwing errors have literally sucked the life out of the Illini football team.
2009 Illini QB Candidates:
Juice!
Jr. Eddie McGee
RS freshman Jacob Charest
2009 freshman recruit Nathan Scheelhaase

9.) Purdue 4-8
Purdue's high octane spread attack earned a rating of 7th in league scoring and 4th in yards/game under star QB Curtis Painter. Painter graduates and coach Joe Tiller is being replaced by former Boilermaker offensive line coach Danny Hope. Will Hope continue Tillers passing attack or mix in some other razzle-dazzle? I'm not too optimistic about the Boilermarkers' future right now, mainly because I don't know about Danny Hope. I do know this: Purdue has a good QB coming back in Joey Elliott.
2009 Boilermaker QB Candidates:
Sr. Joey Elliott
So. Justin Siller
RS Fr. Caleb TerBush
then 2009 freshmen Najee Tyler and Rob Henry.

10.) Michigan 3-9
RS Freshman Steven Threet shared duties with Sophomore Nick Sheridan. Both performed poorly in the 2008 campaign overall as Michigan finished last in scoring and last in yards/game.
Both threw inconsistently and did not seem to fully grasp the offense. On the one hand, it's not going to be that difficult for Michigan to improve upon the 2008 QB numbers - they were that bad. On the other hand, Michigan enters the 2009 campaign with either low talent and low experience (Threet, Sheridan) at QB, or high talent and low experience (Forcier, Robinson).
One thing is certain now, head coach Rich Rodriguez finally has some players joining the football team in 2009 more to his liking, i.e. with good throwing accuracy, excellent footspeed and big playmaking ability. Threet has the inside track to start in 2009, in my view. Forcier and Robinson are going to push him very hard, however, in the Spring and Fall practice sessions. Threet's strength is his offensive playbook understanding, arm strength and game experience. His weaknesses have been lack of speed, poor throwing accuracy and hanging onto the ball way too long. But again, as far as arm strength goes, Threet may be the best there is in the Michigan lineup. Accuracy awards, though, will likely go to Mr. Forcier and Mr. Robinson. The quarterback position at Michigan is going to be interesting to watch for another reason in 2009: The Wolverine receiving corps may very well be the best in the Big Ten, if not the entire MidWest, from an overall speed, experience and talent perspective.
2009 Wolverine QB Candidates:
So Steven Threet
Fr. Tate Forcier
Fr. Denard Robinson
Jr. Nick Sheridan
Fr. Nader Furrha
So. Justin Feagin (playing slot)
Senior David Cone is also in the depth chart, but probably never before slotback.

11.) Indiana 3-9
I liked Indiana in 2007. Gaining bowl eligiblity and dedicating the season to Terry Hoeppner as they did was a cool thing. I thought it might be a program on the rise, to some extent anyway. 2008 was a disaster, however. Indiana finished 10th in league scoring and 8th in yards/game. The Hoosiers alternated talented quarterbacks Kellen Lewis and Ben Chappelle most of the season. The results were 12 TD passes and 11 INTs. I would expect these numbers to improve in 2009. Indiana's depth at QB is substantial, and Lewis could have a breakout senior season for the Hoosiers if he can stay out of trouble off the field, and if the other ten players on the Hoosier offense would only cooperate. Lewis's backups are capable and experienced.
2009 Hoosier QB Candidates:
Sr. Kellen Lewis,
Jr. Ben Chappelle,
Jr.Mitchell Evans,
So. Teddy Schell,
RS Fr. Adam Follett
2009 Freshman Edward Wright-Baker.

The Big Ten teams with the best QB outlook for 2009?

1.) Penn State (Darry Clark)

2.) Iowa (Rick Stanzi)

3.) Indiana (Kellen Lewis)

4.) Northwestern (Mike Kafka)

5.) Ohio State (Terrelle Pryor)

6.) Minnesota (When and if AdamWeber returns to full health)

7.) Michigan State (because of Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol play to hype)

8.) Illinois (The Juice!!)

9.) Michigan (Steven Threet/Tate Forcier/Denard Robinson)

10.) Purdue (Joey Elliott)

11.) Wisconsin (Scott Tolzien)

The next key variable is total returning offensive starters. Here are my estimates for 2009 football teams in the Big Ten conference:

1.) Michigan 11+ returnees
2.) Minnesota 10 returnees
3.) Indiana 9 returnees
4.) Iowa 7 returnees
5.) Illinois 7 returnees
6.) Michigan State 6 returnees
7.) Wisconsin 6 returnees
8.) Purdue 5 returnees
9.) Northwestern 4 returnees
10.) Ohio State 4 returnees
11.) Penn State 4 returnees