Michigan's Football Recruiting Yield Since 2005

In the history of college football, if we were to look up the most consistent and successful football programs, most of them have been true masters at recruiting top tier student athletes.

If you follow college football at all, you probably spend some amount of time looking at recruiting developments for your favorite team. While recruiting is not the most important factor to the success of a football program, it IS the FIRST most important step in terms of establishing winning consistency and long-term program success on the gridiron. The SECOND most important step, and one that that gets rather short shrift by Scout.com and Rivals.com and other sports media outlets, is the retention and development of recruits.

What makes college football recruiting so damn interesting (and worrying) is that fans consider it to be some kind of compass for the direction in which their favorite college football program appears to be headed. But we all know that getting kids signed is only the prologue.

Signing great classes is not the "be all and end all" of college football success:

Scout.com	Michigan	Coach	Record	Ohio State	Coach	Record
2002	19	Lloyd Carr	10-3-0	3	Jim Tressel	14-0-0
2003	8	Lloyd Carr	10-3-0	25	Jim Tressel	11-2-0
2004	5	Lloyd Carr	9-3-0	11	Jim Tressel	8-4-0
2005	2	Lloyd Carr	7-5-0	7	Jim Tressel	10-2-0
2006	8	Lloyd Carr	11-2-0	11	Jim Tressel	12-1-0
2007	10	Lloyd Carr	9-4-0	16	Jim Tressel	11-2-0
2008	6	RichRod	3-9-0	4	Jim Tressel	10-3-0
2009	14	RichRod		1	Jim Tressel
Average	9			9.75

Good coaching, creative offensive schemes and defensive strategy, superior team conditioning, and overall team chemistry are extremely important factors to consider as well.

But how many times have we witnessed college football fans high-fiving and backslapping each other in self-congratulation whenever their favorite college football team lands a Top 25, Top 10 or even Top 5 ranked recruiting class?
It's even worse when their favorite team somehow recruited a better class than their rivals.

Unfortunately, one or even two good recruiting classes does not a conference champion (or national champion) make.

Fans who celebrate prematurely like this really are “counting their chickens before they even hatch”.

In early May of this year, I explored just one of Lloyd Carr’s recruiting misadventures and it’s aftermath: The 2006 football class signees.

I decided to take a broader look at this issue since 2005. My question is whether we might be able learn something new from recent years Michigan football recruiting. Are we right to be doing cartwheels in the living room whenever Michigan manages to sign a Top 10 recruiting class? Are we right to hold head in hands whenever a recruit leaves or is dismissed from the team?

What I decided to do was capture Michigan’s recruiting classes, player position ranking and player rating from Scout.com since 2005. I counted up the number of signees (scholarships) each year. I calculated the average player position ranking and average player rating for each class (according to Scout.com). I then factored in the impact of attrition, including career-ending injuries, departures, transfers and dismissals. This is fundamentally an exercise in player subtraction from each class. While the attrition losses themselves have been enlightening to view as they occur over extended periods of time (not always during the year signed), I wanted to see what the impact would be of such player losses in terms of Michigan’s “average player position ranking” and “average player rating” to uncover whether the remaining players strengthened or weakened the class recruiting scores. If anything, the main impact should be a negative one in terms of available players to stack the depth chart.

Here's a summary:

2005 Michigan Recruiting Class
Michigan signed 23 players in February 2006. Eleven (11) of these (50%) would eventually leave or be dismissed from the Michigan team under Lloyd Carr. This was one of the most disasterous recruiting classes in recent history for the Wolverines. Each departure had it’s own sad story. Some of the key casualties to Michigan’s future rosters included: DT Marques Slocum (academic), OL Cory Zirbel (injury), OL Justin Schifano, DT James McKinney, QB/WR Antonio Bass (injury), QB Jason Forcier (transfer to UCLA), Chris LB McLaurin, DB Chris Richards, TB Mister Simpson, DE Eugene Germany and DB Johnny Sears. Many of these players signed in February 2006 and enrolled in September 2006 and, assuming no redshirt, might have been seniors this fall.
The average player position ranking for this class after attrition was 17th.
The average star rating per player after attrition was 3.7 stars.

2006 Michigan Recruiting Class
Michigan signed only 19 players this time. Overall UM roster casualties were lowered to only 4: OL Justin Boren (transfer to OSU), LB Cobrani Mixon (transfer to Kent State), LB Quintin Patilla (transfer to GVSU), DE Quintin Woods (transfer to Kansas). Assuming no redshirt, these players would have been juniors in 2009. The total class yield (so far) is 15 players.
The average player position ranking for this class after attrition was 27th.
The average star rating per player after attrition was 3.5 stars.

2007 Michigan Recruiting Class
Coming off an 11-2 season, Michigan landed 20 signees and the 10th best recruiting class in the land. However, 20% of them would go eventually go bye-bye, including the No. 1 QB recruit in the country Ryan Mallett (transfer to Arkansas), Toney Clemons (transfer to Colorado), Zion Babb, Artis Chambers and Avery Horn. Once again UM’s recruiting yield would be 15 players. A good number of these remaining players are now sophomores on the 2009 Michigan roster.
The average player position ranking for this class after attrition was 20th.
The average star rating per player after attrition was 3.7 stars.

2008 Michigan Recruiting Class
Michigan finished 9-4 in what would be Lloyd Carr’s final year. Michigan embarrassed Gary Danielson, Kirk Herbstreit and Florida by winning a bowl game over a great SEC team. Michigan had just named Rich Rodriguez as the new head coach of the team. Rodriguez secured most of Carr’s commits and nabbed a few more for a big class of 24 players. Michigan’s 2008 class was ranked 6th in the land by Scout.com. Soon we would see attrition rear it’s ugly head yet again as 4 high rated players would depart the Michigan team: 5-star tailback Sam McGuffie (transfer to Rice), OL Kurt Wermers (left team), OL Dann O’Neill (left team), Marcus Witherspoon (transfer to Rutgers). This leaves a total yield of 20 players.
The average player position ranking for this class after attrition was 36th.
The average star rating per player after attrition was 3.6 stars.

2009 Michigan Recruiting Class
This would be the first full class brought in by Rodriguez. It followed UM’s first losing in football season since 1967. Scout.com gave Rodriguez's solo recruiting endeavors a lashing in the rankings ranking Michigan's haul 14th in the country. Rivals.com was more generous ranking it 8th. Rodriguez signed another big class of 22 players. The attrition numbers for this class are not yet known.
The average player position ranking for this class is 34th.
The average star rating per player is 3.4 stars.

Overall, the impact of class attrition does not always negatively impact the average player position ranking or average player rating (# of stars)for the remaining players of the class after the attrition takes place.

The main damage that attrition causes(aside from shaming the coach and the school's reputation through lazy journalism and media sensationalism) is as we expected. It completely screws up a football team’s future depth chart. Michigan has unfortunately served as a textbook example of this, but other schools must surely suffer under the same phenomenon.

Just look at the total loss of recruits since 2005 and then consider what this might mean for the 2009 team, particularly given the defensive positions of need like DE, DT, LB and the secondary:

No.	Name	Pos	National Rank	National Rating	Result	Class of
1	Marques Slocum	DT	5	5	Academics	2005
1	Cory Zirbel	OL	20	4	Career ending injury prior to 2008 season	2005
1	Justin Schifano	OL	16	4	Gave up football, left team	2005
1	James McKinney	DT	11	4	Medical Release, Transferred to Louisville	2005
1	Antonio Bass	WR	9	4	Career ending knee injury	2005
1	Jason Forcier	QB	8	4	Transferred to Stanford/UCLA	2005
1	Chris McLaurin	LB	58	3	Left team, medical reasons	2005
1	Chris Richards	CB	56	3	Kicked off team	2005
1	Mister Simpson	RB	53	3	Transferred to Cincinatti	2005
1	Eugene Germany	DE	33	3	Left team, transferred to Ariz. State	2005
1	Johnny Sears	CB	31	3	Kicked off team in 2007	2005
1	Justin Boren	OL	7	5	Transfer to OSU	2006
1	Cobrani Mixon	LB	30	4	Kent State	2006
1	Quintin Patilla	LB	58	3	GVSU	2006
1	Quintin Woods	DE	NR	2	Left team. Plays for Kansas	2006
1	Ryan Mallett	QB	5	2	Transfer to Arkansas 2008	2007
1	Toney Clemons	WR	4	10	Transfer to Colorado 2009	2007
1	Zion Babb	WR	4	55	Left team 2009	2007
1	Artis Chambers	FS	3	34	Left team 2009	2007
1	Avery Horn	TB	3	77	Lef team 2009	2007
1	Steve Threet	QB	4	9	Transfer to Arizona State 2009	2007
1	Sam McGuffie	RB	5	7	Transfer to Rice	2008
1	Kurt Wermers	OL	4	11	Left team Spring 2009	2008
1	Dann O'Neill	OL	4	14	Left Spring 2009	2008
1	Marcus Witherspoon	LB	4	14	Transfer to Rutgers	2008
25	GRAND TOTAL

Assuming fewer recruit losses over this period, Michigan would almost certainly have far fewer worries than it currently does in the 2 and 3 deep for a number of key positions. Between 2005 and 2008 (so far) for ever 4 players Michigan successfully recruited, 1 player would "escape". This is about 6 players per year during this period.

This can only leave fans wondering all that could have been had Michigan just managed to retain even a few of these highly rated recruits.

Nevertheless, celebrating a strong, Top 10 recruiting class appears to be a rational response despite eventual player departures, as long as no consistent pattern develops that would resemble the train wreck that was Michigan’s 2005 recruiting class.

Michigan Football Commitmas in June

National signing day for 2010 college football freshmen recruits is 8 months away, and the Michigan Wolverines football team has already chalked up 14 verbal commitments.

It's like "Commitmas" in June or something.

So far recruiting websites are tracking Michigan's 2010 class as ranked 10th (Scout.com) . Rivals.com shows Michigan's class ranked 8th .

Not too shabby for a 3-9 team that was thrown down the stairs and landed in the Big Ten cellar last fall.

Depending on available scholarships that may be doled out to walk-ons this year, Michigan may sign between 22 to 23 players and possibly more.

Michigan has received 4 verbal commitments in just the last 3 weeks:

Jordan Paskorz, Allison Park, PA 3-star, No. 58 DE/DL

Chrisian Pace, Avon Lake, OH, 3-star, No. 36 OG

Kenny Wilkins, Washington, PA, 4-star, No. 31 DE

Cornelius Jones, Spartanburg, SC, 1-star, unranked QB

Now I'm not suggesting that this is the part where everyone is supposed to be majorly impressed or anything.

I'm just saying that 14 commits by June is pretty freaking unusual for Michigan football.

And as remarkable as these commitment numbers might seem, verbal commitments are just that: verbal "promises" that can be rather easily and unceremoniously broken by the 17 to 18 year olds declaring them. Michigan football followers don't really need to be reminded of this painful truth.

I don't know whether racking up this many recruits this early is a good thing, or a bad thing. Personally I'd prefer to let this all play out a little longer and well into the regular season before anyone thumps their chest or decides to plant a victory flag at the 50 yard line.

This has been a fun off-season to observe. With our peripheral vision it's also been somewhat difficult not to notice how Texas has the No. 1 ranked class so far with the most verbals to date: 19! Jim Harbaugh at Stanford has 17 commits and Texas A&M has 16 so far, with pretty good quality players on the list.

From a historical standpoint, I don't know that this has ever happened before at Michigan. Let's take a quick look at Michigan verbal commitment tallies up to the June 15th date of each recruiting year since 2002:

Year	Coach	Verbal Commits Up to June 15
2010	Rodriguez	14
2009	Rodriguez	6
2008	Carr/Rodriguez	6
2007	Carr	6
2006	Carr	2
2005	Carr	5
2004	Carr	3
2003	Carr	0

I have no idea how Schembechler or Moeller did in their day, but based on recent UM recruiting history, we are entering some uncharted waters folks.

Now I'm not trying to knock Carr at all here, because I know he had some fantastic recruiters on his staffs over the years, and Lloyd himself emerged as a fantastic recruiter for the Wolverines, BUT....I just get the impression that Rodriguez's recruiting strategy is far more relentless, and far more wreckless than Carr's ever was. And it's almost like there's an element of "fun" going on out there on the recruiting trail and during these camps.

I do believe Michigan will land a Top 15 class for 2010. Michigan will still need some excellent pick ups by February in order to close out a Top 10 class however.

In the end, I'm not even sure whether recruiting rankings matter all that much because of the system Rodriguez/Robinson run and the profile of offensive and defensive players that are matched to these systems. But more than this, Rivals and Scout have both lost control and have proceeded to drive their player rankings off a cliff. We're all supposed to shut up and keep buying it. And some of us recruiting addicts continue to do exactly that.

The interesting bit in my opinion is that camp isn't over and there are some indications over on the premium message boards that 1 or more pretty impressive recruits may declare their respective Michigan affinities before this week is out!

With a finite number of slots now available for the 2010, Michigan football coaches will likely continue to focus heavily on defensive positions, particularly the secondary, which remains an area of considerable need for the young Wolverine squad.
It'll be interesting to see how the undecideds react as these spots gradually get filled.

So yeah, it feels a little bit like "Commitmas" in June right now, and not only for the Wolverines. Other UM targets 4-star DE William Gholston and 3-star CB Mylan Hicks both committed to the Michigan State Spartans this week as well.

2 Days to Go: Michigan Recruiting Nerds Play the Waiting Game

The 2009 college football recruiting season has almost run its course, and Michigan fans (including college football recruiting nerds like me) are still holding their breath.

In just 2 days America's top college football recruits will sign letters of intent to play football for the college of their choice on Signing Day, Wednesday, February 4th.

The Michigan Wolverines have landed 20 recruits so far and have earned a ranking of 20th in the land by Scout.com and 7th in the land by Rivals.com recruiting magazines respectively.

Following a disasterous 3-9-0 football season in 2009, Michigan has done remarkably well on the recruiting trail, but it has been an exhausting process with more ups and downs than any Michigan football fan might ever remember. With 5 spots left to fill and possibly more, here are the top remaining prospects for the Wolverines for 2009:

QB/CB Denard Robinson, 4 star, No 13 CB, 6-0, 176 lbs, Deerfield Beach, FL, 4.38 speed. Choice is between Florida and Michigan.

CB Adrian Witty, 2 star, NR Safety, 6-1, 185 lbs, Deerfield Beach, FL, speed unknown (was injured in 2008). Witty is considering Kansas State, Michigan and Florida.

OL Quinton Washington, 3 star, No. 125 OL, 6-4, 322lbs, St. Stephen, SC
Between Michigan and South Carolina. Too close to call.

Over the last 3 weeks Michigan has apparently lost out on landing the following list of interested recruits. Some of them visited the UM campus in Ann Arbor:

OL Marcus Hall, 5 star, No. 2 OL, 6-5, 293 lbs, Cleveland, OH, 5.4 speed, Committed to Ohio State.

WR/QB Travante Stallworth, 3 star, No. 120 WR, 5-9, 180 lbs, Leesville, LA, 4.4 speed. Auburn bound.

DE Bennie Logan, 3 star, No. 64 DE, 6-3, 245 lbs, Coushatta, LA, 4.8 speed.
Committed to LSU

WR Willie Haulstead, 4 star, No. 37 WR, 6-2, 195 lbs, Miami, FL, 4.6 speed
Committed to Florida State.

DE Sam Montgomery, 4 star, No. 7 DE, 6-5, 240 lbs, Greenwood, SC, 5.7 speed
LSU or North Carolina or Tennessee.

WR Je'Ron Stokes, 4 star, No. 19 WR, 6-0, 195 lbs, Philadelphia, PA, 4.5 speed
A Tennessee commit. Considered Michigan for a time, but apparently leaning toward flintlock, hound dogs and Davy Crockett, a.k.a Tennessee.

There have been the stunning decommitments of Kevin Newsome (Penn State commit) and Shavodrick Beaver (Tulsa). Beaver's decommitment came just 6 weeks before signing day, which forced a change in Michigan's recruiting efforts during the last several weeks. Michigan desperately needs 2 QBs in the 2009 class to build up talent and depth at this key position to ensure that Rodriguez's spread option offense might have an opportunity to run at full throttle. They have one in Tate Forcier, but need another to add depth.

If Michigan lands the above 3 recruits (Washington, Witty and Robinson) and somehow retains DT Pearlie Graves and DE DaQuinta Jones in the class, then Michigan will have landed 23 players total. Two to three additional spots remain for the class, but it remains unclear who would occupy them.

Should 4-star CB/QB recruit Denard Robinson decide not commit to Michigan for some reason, then the Wolverines' 2009 class would still be on par with previous classes under Lloyd Carr and Rich Rodriguez comparatively speaking. Over the last 8 years both Michigan and Ohio State have landed top 10 recruiting classes (actually identically ranked on average at 10th place over the last 8 seasons.)

Also noteworthy is that Rodriguez did land the No. 1 rated players in Michigan (DT/OL William Campbell) and Ohio (CB JT Turner) respectively.

The media will no doubt find ways to highlight the decommitments of Newsome and Beaver. But 2009 recruiting haul is a already sweet class for Michigan and can be made only sweeter by landing Denard Robinson.

(Photo of Denard Robinson by Nissa Benjamin of Miami Herald)

2009 Michigan Recruiting - Predicted Finish

Michigan has landed 20 recruits so far and should have a final class of 25 commits by signing day.

So who will occupy the final 5 open slots and join the other 20 to don the Maize & Blue in 2009?

Here are my predictions:

QB/CB Denard Robinson, 4 star, No 13 CB, 6-0, 176 lbs, Deerfield Beach, FL, 4.38 speed. Talented QB and CB. Provides RR with badly needed depth for QB position.

CB Adrian Witty, 2 star, NR Safety, 6-1, 185 lbs, Deerfield Beach, FL, speed unknown (was injured in 2008). Robinson and Witty come as a "package deal".

WR Je'Ron Stokes, 4 star, No. 19 WR, 6-0, 195 lbs, Philadelphia, PA, 4.5 speed

WR Willie Haulstead, 4 star, No. 37 WR, 6-2, 195 lbs, Miami, FL, 4.6 speed

DE Sam Montgomery, 4 star, No. 7 DE, 6-5, 240 lbs, Greenwood, SC, 5.7 speed

Other possible, but less likely, commits:

OL Marcus Hall, 5 star, No. 2 OL, 6-5, 293 lbs, Cleveland, OH, 5.4 speed, but tremendous local pressure for Marcus to commit to UM rival Ohio State

OL Quinton Washington, 3 star, No. 125 OL, 6-4, 322lbs, St. Stephen, SC, speed unknown. depends on Hall a little bit.

WR/QB Travante Stallworth, 3 star, No. 120 WR, 5-9, 180 lbs, Leesville, LA, 4.4 speed, but may confirm current commitment to Auburn shortly.

DE Bennie Logan, 3 star, No. 64 DE, 6-3, 245 lbs, Coushatta, LA, 4.8 speed. Depends on pending southern school visits, LSU's greyshirt situation and perhaps.

The best case scenario would be landing just one of the receivers above and Marcus Hall.

The worst case scenario would be a class absent Robinson, Hall and Montgomery. Michigan really must land 1 of these three players, and preferably 2 of the 3.

It's a pretty tall order given the competition. But Michigan's lack of depth, early playing opportunities, not to mention a world-class education, must weigh heavily on the minds of these prospects too.

Michigan finished strong in recruiting in 2008 under Rodriguez. It's important to finish strong again. The hour is late. Important spots (QB and DE) simply must be filled. It is very important too that Pearlie Graves and Daquinta Jones stay in this class or that comparable replacements are somehow found.

Michigan's 2009 Recruiting Class - Now In The Final Stretch

With 2 1/2 weeks to go for Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez to fill out his 2009 freshman class.

With 20 recruits so far, the Wolverines' class so far is ranked 12th nationally by Scout.com and 8th nationally by Rivals.com. This leaves 5 spots open that still need to be filled and perhaps more if soft commits DT Pearlie Graves and DE DaQuinta Jones choose to decommit from Michigan.

In my view, Michigan's biggest needs are indeed:

Quarterback

Landing Tate Forcier was very important. But losing talented commit Shavodrick Beaver to Tulsa was a serious blow to Rodriguez's class. At this point in the year, there appear to be slim pickings as far as quality quarterbacks go. Florida CB/QB combo Denard Robinson is one option, and Austin Dantin is another, and LA QB Brandon Mitchell is yet a third target for the Wolverines, but Mitchell says he's 90% sure he'll be an Arkansas Razorback.

Wide Receiver

Senior Greg Mathews graduates this coming fall. Besides, with the spread formations Michigan runs today, more wideouts are needed than just Hemingway, Clemons, Stonum.

Je'Ron Stokes appears to be a prime target for this position right now alongside Travante Stallworth and Anthony Williams.

Offensive Line

Neither Rodriguez nor OL coach Greg Frey can be too satisfied with Michigan's offensive line situation. The Wolverines OL demonstrated the same slow and deliberate movement toward improvement as the Earth's tectonic plates. Michigan landed Schofield, Lewan and Lalota, but may want 1 more to play offensive tackle or guard. With Bond having Carolina on his mind, there remain massive Ohio OT Marcus Hall and SC OL Quinton Washington on the target list for Michigan.

Defensive End

This wouldn't be such an issue if Graves and Jones weren't so soft with their commitments to come to Michigan. An interesting option here is SC DE Sam Montgomery who said he was impressed with his winter visit of UofM. Defensive end is important however, as Brandon Graham graduates next fall. LA DE Bernie Logan is another target that will be visiting Michigan shortly. I do believe that OT John Ferrara will likely move back to defense (DE/DL) in 2009 to provide more talent and bodies on that side, rather than stay on the offensive line for the Wolverines.

Cornerback

In my view, Michigan needs better cornerback play because between 2005-2008 secondary play, in general, has been one collossal disappointment. Cissoko and Warren are very talented, highly regarded and capable. But Michigan needs more talent here, i.e. one or two "shutdown corners" going forward.

Denard Robinson is a CB, but would likely play QB at Michigan. Jayron Hosely is an almost certain South Florida lock for HC Jim Leavitt, so that leaves...nobody? Maybe some of many leftover Michigan's safeties will convert over to play CB.

The 2008 recruiting season ended on a very high note for new coach Rodriguez. With only a few weeks left it will be interesting to see whether Michigan football recruiting again ends with a fury of success, or an anti-climatic thud.