Rumours Suggest Steven Threet May Transfer

The rumour mill today is suggesting that Michigan QB Steven Threet may transfer from the football team prior to spring practice.

Threet was Michigan's starting QB during much of the 2008 campaign and played in 10 of Michigan's 12 games. Threet led Michigan to two of it's three victories in 2008, versus Miami Ohio and versus Wisconsin.

Threet's 2008 Statistics over 10 games:

Passing:

200 Attempts 102 Completions 51% compl.% 1,105 yards 9 TDs 7 INTs 15 Sacks

Rushing:

76 Attempts 201 yards 2.6 yards/carry 2 TDs

If this rumour is true, Michigan's quarterback situation from an experience standpoint would again for the second straight season be rather dire. The next most experienced quarterback for the Wolverines would be Junior Nick Sheridan. Sheridan knows the spread offense probably better than anyone on the team, including Threet. But Sheridan was much maligned during 2008 for his apparent weaknesses, all the more poignant given the position he plays: poor arm strength and poor throwing accuracy.

Should Threet decide to transfer, Rich Rodriguez's options would include:

Nick Sheridan, Junior, 6-2, 190, Walk On


Tate Forcier, Freshman, 6-1, 190, 4 star, No. 15 QB


Denard Robinson, Freshman, 6-0, 176, 4 star, No. 13 CB/QB


Justin Feagin, Sophomore, 6-0, 190, 2 star, No. 93 CB (to play slotback in 2009)


David Cone, Senior, 6-6, 210, 3 star, No. 23 QB


Nader Furrha, Freshman, 6-1, 175, 2 star, No. 142 QB (Walk On)

Threet's potential departure only confirms the importance for Rodriguez to land a second QB in the 2009 recruiting class, which I mentioned in prior posts as if it came straight from Captain Obvious. Personally, I hope the rumour is false. Michigan needs Threet on the depth chart another year at least. Still, the Wolverines do appear to have 2 fine options at QB in Forcier and Robinson. There was great hope that somehow Threet and Sheridan could make "tremendous strides" in their throwing technique and knowledge of the offense during the off-season and that such effort would make itself apparent to coaches and fans in the spring.

Michigan was to be one of the few Big Ten teams returning it's starting QB for the 2009 season, and was the only team returning 2 QBs with substantial playing time. Michigan's competition at QB in the upcoming spring and fall practice sessions may still be intense, even if that competition likely only centers around the two incoming freshman who possess the footspeed, option agility and throwing accuracy to run Rodriguez' spread offense offense.

2009 Big Ten Quarterbacks: Returning Starters and New Candidates

Everyone knows the importance of the quarterback in football, be it college or pro level. Returning a starting quarterback is almost always considered to be a huge plus to any football team in terms of continuity and on-field performance.

Let's review 2008 briefly and the teams that returned starting QBs and the team records:

1.) Penn State 11-2
QB Darryl Clark replaced Anthony Morelli and was far more productive offensively.
Penn State led the Big Ten in scoring 40 pts. per game and in yards per game. Entering the 2008 season Clark was experienced in clean up duty and was very comfortable as starter.
2009 Nittany Lion QB Candidates:
Darryl Clark is back as a senior.
Then there is 2009 incoming freshman Kevin Newsome.
(Paul Ciancolo graduated and backup Pat Devlin transferred to the Delaware Blue Hens)

2.) Ohio State 10-3
QB Todd Boeckmann led OSU to the Big Ten title and national championship game in 2007. In 2008, Boeckmann played second fiddle to freshman sensation Terrelle Pryor at QB.
Buckeyes finished 5th in league scoring and a surprising 9th in yards/game. Great defense is what elevated Ohio State play most of the season. Oh, and a healthy Beanie Wells.
The Buckeyes landed a great freshman class for 2009 and the timing is perfect.
Pryor will need significantly better play for the OL and a rejuvenated running game under Brandon Saine and Jamal Berry. Otherwise, the overwhelming pressure on Pryor will only mount.
2009 Buckeye QB Candidates:
So. Terrelle Pryor
So. Joe Bausermann
2009 freshman recruit Ken Guiton

3.) Michigan State 9-4
QB Bryan Hoyer returned as the Spartans' senior starter for 2008. Offensively, Michigan State was decidedly mediocre in the Big Ten, measuring 6th in the league in scoring and 7th in yard/game. A strong running game, fewer turnovers and adequate defensive play allowed MSU to win key games in 2008. Hoyer graduates in 2008.
2009 Spartan QB Candidates:
Jr. So. Kirk Cousins
Jr. Keith Nichol
2009 Fr. recruit Andrew Maxwell

4.) Iowa 9-4
Redshirt freshman QB Jake Christianson lost his starting job to sophomore QB Rick Stanzi in the second game of the season, a 42-0 shut of Florida International. The Hawkeyes never looked back. With Stanzi under center and Shonn Greene at tailback, the Hawkeyes exploded offensively finishing 3rd in the Big Ten in scoring and 3rd in the league in yard/game - a major improvement of the prior year. The Hawks were the only Big Ten team to win their bowl game by crushing SEC rep South Carolina in embarrassing fashion in the Outback Bowl 31-10.
Jake Christiansen has transferred.
2009 Hawkeye QB Candidates:
Jr. Rick Stanzi owns this position right now.
So. Marvin McNutt
RS Fr. John Wienke
2009 freshman recruit Micah Hyde.

5.) Northwestern 9-4
CJ Bacher and Mike Kafka split duty at QB in 2008. Kafka was more productive (and dangerous) in the spread offense because of his running ability. Kafka has a good throwing arm as well, and I'm sure we'll see him throw more in 2009 since the Wildcat running game of Sutton and Conteh blew up last fall to injury and do not return. Northwestern finished 8th in scoring and 6th in yards/game.
2009 Wildcat QB Candidates:
Kafka is the heir apparent for 2009.
So. Joe Mauro
2009 freshman recruit Evan Watkins.

6) Wisconsin 7-6
Wisconsin had QB issues the minute Tyler Donovan graduated in 2007. Wisconsin finished 4th in scoring and 3rd in yards/game in 2008 in 2008. Not bad. Unfortunately, the Badgers never achieved the consistency they needed under starter Allan Evridge. I sort of expect improved numbers going into 2009 with backups Tolzien or Sherer at the helm, because I think they are more talented players than Evridge was.
2009 Badger QB Candidates:
Jr. Scott Tolzien
Sr. Dustin Sherer
Curt Phillips
2009 recruit Jon Budmayr round out the Badger QB depth chart.

7.) Minnesota 7-6
The Golden Gophers finished 6th in scoring and 10th in yard/game in 2009 under QB Adam Weber. Weber has been sidelined with off-season surgery, so it's not entirely certain whether he'll start the first few games of the 2009 campaign. He may get into the role again later into the season. No team in the Big Ten returns with more total starters on offense and defense than the Golden Gophers (estimated at 18), so it would not surprise me to see Minnesota winning again 7 games or more, upsetting a few Big Ten teams along the way in their new TCF stadium, and then getting embarrassed in a bowl game per tradition. By 2010 this Gopher team could be pretty good. Weber might miss the first 1 or 2 games of the season in 2009.
2009 Gopher QB Candidates:
Sr. David Pittman is the most experienced behind Weber.
Soph. MarQueis Gray
2009 freshman recruit Moses Alipate.
Sr. Adam Weber (surgery)

8.) Illinois 5-7
I'm still trying to figure out how you go from Rose Bowl team, return your starting QB (Williams), return an awesome WR (Benn), and sensational tailback Daniel Dufresne, and not become bowl eligible. I guess this explains Ron Zook's negative recruiting tactics. I think it's also explained by something called "Western Michigan". Regardless, the Fighting Illini return with Juice at QB, and hey, that's all you need, right? Well, minus the 16 soul-crushing interceptions, I mean. Juice Williams is probably the Big Ten's loudest demonstration that it's simply not good enough to have a Pat White under center making big plays and giving defensive coordinators fits. You can't turn the ball over. You need a consistent running game, and the defense has to stop people. It sounds strange to say this, but Juice Williams is entering his senior season for the Illini. He threw for a sick number of yards in 2008, but behind closed doors right now Zook has to be thinking very hard about his QB situation and whether Juice Williams is the right choice. Williams is brilliant....at times. No question about it. He destroyed Michigan (not much of a feat last year, but still) and he almost single-handedly knocked off Ohio State in Columbus a year ago. Still, at other times, Williams' throwing errors have literally sucked the life out of the Illini football team.
2009 Illini QB Candidates:
Juice!
Jr. Eddie McGee
RS freshman Jacob Charest
2009 freshman recruit Nathan Scheelhaase

9.) Purdue 4-8
Purdue's high octane spread attack earned a rating of 7th in league scoring and 4th in yards/game under star QB Curtis Painter. Painter graduates and coach Joe Tiller is being replaced by former Boilermaker offensive line coach Danny Hope. Will Hope continue Tillers passing attack or mix in some other razzle-dazzle? I'm not too optimistic about the Boilermarkers' future right now, mainly because I don't know about Danny Hope. I do know this: Purdue has a good QB coming back in Joey Elliott.
2009 Boilermaker QB Candidates:
Sr. Joey Elliott
So. Justin Siller
RS Fr. Caleb TerBush
then 2009 freshmen Najee Tyler and Rob Henry.

10.) Michigan 3-9
RS Freshman Steven Threet shared duties with Sophomore Nick Sheridan. Both performed poorly in the 2008 campaign overall as Michigan finished last in scoring and last in yards/game.
Both threw inconsistently and did not seem to fully grasp the offense. On the one hand, it's not going to be that difficult for Michigan to improve upon the 2008 QB numbers - they were that bad. On the other hand, Michigan enters the 2009 campaign with either low talent and low experience (Threet, Sheridan) at QB, or high talent and low experience (Forcier, Robinson).
One thing is certain now, head coach Rich Rodriguez finally has some players joining the football team in 2009 more to his liking, i.e. with good throwing accuracy, excellent footspeed and big playmaking ability. Threet has the inside track to start in 2009, in my view. Forcier and Robinson are going to push him very hard, however, in the Spring and Fall practice sessions. Threet's strength is his offensive playbook understanding, arm strength and game experience. His weaknesses have been lack of speed, poor throwing accuracy and hanging onto the ball way too long. But again, as far as arm strength goes, Threet may be the best there is in the Michigan lineup. Accuracy awards, though, will likely go to Mr. Forcier and Mr. Robinson. The quarterback position at Michigan is going to be interesting to watch for another reason in 2009: The Wolverine receiving corps may very well be the best in the Big Ten, if not the entire MidWest, from an overall speed, experience and talent perspective.
2009 Wolverine QB Candidates:
So Steven Threet
Fr. Tate Forcier
Fr. Denard Robinson
Jr. Nick Sheridan
Fr. Nader Furrha
So. Justin Feagin (playing slot)
Senior David Cone is also in the depth chart, but probably never before slotback.

11.) Indiana 3-9
I liked Indiana in 2007. Gaining bowl eligiblity and dedicating the season to Terry Hoeppner as they did was a cool thing. I thought it might be a program on the rise, to some extent anyway. 2008 was a disaster, however. Indiana finished 10th in league scoring and 8th in yards/game. The Hoosiers alternated talented quarterbacks Kellen Lewis and Ben Chappelle most of the season. The results were 12 TD passes and 11 INTs. I would expect these numbers to improve in 2009. Indiana's depth at QB is substantial, and Lewis could have a breakout senior season for the Hoosiers if he can stay out of trouble off the field, and if the other ten players on the Hoosier offense would only cooperate. Lewis's backups are capable and experienced.
2009 Hoosier QB Candidates:
Sr. Kellen Lewis,
Jr. Ben Chappelle,
Jr.Mitchell Evans,
So. Teddy Schell,
RS Fr. Adam Follett
2009 Freshman Edward Wright-Baker.

The Big Ten teams with the best QB outlook for 2009?

1.) Penn State (Darry Clark)

2.) Iowa (Rick Stanzi)

3.) Indiana (Kellen Lewis)

4.) Northwestern (Mike Kafka)

5.) Ohio State (Terrelle Pryor)

6.) Minnesota (When and if AdamWeber returns to full health)

7.) Michigan State (because of Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol play to hype)

8.) Illinois (The Juice!!)

9.) Michigan (Steven Threet/Tate Forcier/Denard Robinson)

10.) Purdue (Joey Elliott)

11.) Wisconsin (Scott Tolzien)

The next key variable is total returning offensive starters. Here are my estimates for 2009 football teams in the Big Ten conference:

1.) Michigan 11+ returnees
2.) Minnesota 10 returnees
3.) Indiana 9 returnees
4.) Iowa 7 returnees
5.) Illinois 7 returnees
6.) Michigan State 6 returnees
7.) Wisconsin 6 returnees
8.) Purdue 5 returnees
9.) Northwestern 4 returnees
10.) Ohio State 4 returnees
11.) Penn State 4 returnees

Michigan's 2009 Offensive Depth Chart

The Michigan Wolverine offense was much maligned in 2008. And for good reason.

Big Ten Statistics:

Scoring Offense: 11th with 20.3 average points per game.

Yards Per Game: 11th with 291 average yards per game, 143 yds/game.

Total Yards Passing: 11th, 1178 yards passing over 12 games, 291 yds/game.

Total Yards Rushing: 7th, 1771 yards rushing over 12 games, 148 yds/game.

Michigan's Big Ten statistics are damning enough, but the offensive numbers nationally are about as comforting as a root canal:

Scoring Offense: 98th out of 120 teams

Yards/Game: 109th

3rd Down Success Rate: 119th (27 % !!!), only godawful Washington State was worse.

Time of Possession: 110th with 27:33 minutes per game (in other words: run, run, pass, punt)

Penalties: 23rd (57 penalities for 500 yards)

Whoa.

That was excruciating to read.

Just about the only thing Michigan's offense was proficient at doing was offensive holding, performing illegal motion, and jump offsides slightly less than 97 other major college football teams during the entire 2008 season. How magical!

So indeed Michigan's offense was not just awful, but one of the nation's worst.

But is there any shred of hope for improvement in 2009, since most of the starters will be back on offense for Michigan?

Here are the 2009 Projected Offensive Starters (though the 2009 Recruiting Class has not fleshed itself out completely):

QB Tate Forcier - 2 Fr. 4 STAR
Steven Threet-10-RS So. 4 STAR
Nick Sheridan-8 So 0 STAR

FB Mark Moundros - 44 Sr. 0 STAR
Kevin Grady-24-Sr 5th 5 STAR


RB/SB Brandon Minor - 4 Sr 4 STAR
Michael Shaw-20 So. 4 STAR
Carlos Brown - 23 Sr. 4 STAR
Jeremy Gallon-? Fr. 3 STAR
Vincent Smith-? Fr. 3 STAR
Teric Jones-? Fr. 3 STAR
Fitzgerald Toussaint-? Fr. 3 STAR
Justin Feagin-3-So 2 STAR

WR Greg Mathews-13-Sr. 3 STAR
Darryl Stonum-22 So. 4 STAR
Cameron Gordon-? Fr. 3 STAR

WR Junior Hemingway-21 So. 4 STAR
Toney Clemons-17 Jr. 4 STAR

WR Martavious Odoms-9 So. 4 STAR
Terrance Robinson-7 RS Fr. 4 STAR

TE Kevin Koger-86 So. 4 STAR

RT Steve Schilling-52 Sr. 5 STAR
Perry Dorrestein-79 Sr. 3 STAR
Patrick Omameh-65 So. 3 STAR
Taylor Lewan-? Fr. 4 STAR
Michael Schofield-? Fr. 3 STAR

RG David Moosman-60 Sr. 5th 4 STAR
Kurt Wermers-64 So. 4 STAR
Ricky Barnum-56 So. 3 STAR

C Dave Molk-50 Jr. 4 STAR

LG Tim McAvoy-62 Sr. 5th 4 STAR
John Ferrara-74 Sr. 3 STAR DE
Elliott Mealer-57 So. 4 STAR
Mark Huyge-72 So. 2 STAR

LT Mark Ortmann-71 Sr. 5th 3 STAR
Dann O'Neal-78 So. 4 STAR
Rocko Koury-63-So. 3 STAR
Anthony Lalota - ? Fr. 4 STAR
William Campbell-? Fr. 5 STAR

Clearly Michigan enters 2009 with a great deal more depth (except at Center), overall talent, and experience than it did just one year before. Even with the losses of TB Sam McGuffie (transferred to Rice), Michigan is now a mile deep with youth, talent and speed at tailback and slotback positions. The Wolverines have considerable speed, wide receiver height and depth on the perimeter as well. The Michigan offensive line will likely only improve in 2009 given it's considerble experience, talent and depth.

But if there is a position on the Michigan offensive team that is still a cause of serious concern, it would have to be quarterback. That concern has more to do with questioning the skill, speed and "play-making talent" required to run the entire spread offense playbook of Rich Rodriguez.

The quarterback is instrumental to any offense in college football, but in order for the full power of the spread option offense to be displayed, the right person must be at the helm.

With Rich Rodriguez's spread offense attack, the quarterback must be able to make fast reads and make big plays - either with the arm, with the feet or with both.

Steven Threet has a strong arm, but lacks throwing accuracy, and was frequently injured (elbow and concussions) in games. In addition, Threet is a slow, long-stride runner. He tends to hesitate in the pocket and accepts unnecessary sacks.

Nick Sheridan is not much quicker than Threet, has below average throwing accuracy and a propensity to throw interceptions. Yet no one on the Michigan roster today knows the offense better than Sheridan.

Third string QB Justin Feagin, as far as anyone knows, can run a QB keeper pretty well, but that's the extent of what we've seen. David Cone remains a highly unlikely 4th option.

Threet and Sheridan alternated as the Wolverine starters all season long, but both struggled immensely making fast, defensive reads and managing this high-tempo, no huddle offense.

And so it is that a great deal of hope has already been pinned on incoming freshman quarterback Tate Forcier from Scripps Ranch High School of San Diego, CA.
Forcier's senior high school statistics:




Rushing: 76 attempts, 771 yards, 10.1 yards per carry, 11 TDs

Passing: 298 attempts, 195 complete, 3,331 yards, 23 TDs, 11 Ints.



Forcier brings all the ingredients that Wolverine head coach Rodriguez is looking for in a quarterback: quick feet, an accurate throwing arm, and the ability to make big plays. Forcier has enrolled early, will participate in winter workouts and can start to study Rodriguez's extensive playbook. He will also be eligible to play in the Michigan Spring Football game April 11th.

It should therefore surprise no one if we were to witness Tate Forcier as the leading candidate entering fall practice to start at QB for Michigan.

While Michigan does return both starting quarterbacks Threet and Sheridan, and young Forcier shows favorable promise, there is still cause of concern on offense.

The spread option offense requires the QB to run the football. He is therefore much more susceptible to injury. Should Forcier, for example, become injured, Threet or Sheridan would likely step in, and the Michigan offense might have to downshift a gear or two (or three!).

Rodriguez really needs two to three talented, dual-threat QBs in order to bring the full weight of the offensive playbook to bear on opponents, and to keep the Wolverine offense running on all cylinders.

Landing a second talented and skilled quarterback, therefore, must be a top priority for Rich Rodriguez's 2009 recruiting class. With 2.5 weeks to go before signing day, Michigan has not yet signed one to replace decommit Shavodrick Beaver.